NBA · Monday, November 2, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET · Target Center
Milwaukee Bucks vs Minnesota Timberwolves: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. MIL at MIN.
Milwaukee Bucks18%Leo win chance
Minnesota Timberwolves82%Leo win chanceBoth have MIN winning: Leo by 12.5, DraftKings by 10.5. They are 2 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: MIL 109, MIN 122 (total 231). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has MIN 82%, but the price is -485, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has MIN by 12.5
- Team strength: MIN rates 14.4 pts better than MIL on results so far.
- Injuries: MIN is missing more, 3.3 pts toward MIL.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to MIN.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to MIN’s expected margin. Positive helps MIN, negative helps MIL.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +14.4 | MIN rated +7.1, MIL -8.2 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | MIN 2 days, MIL 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | -3.3 | Value of regulars on the injury report: MIN 15.1, MIL 0 |
| Leo’s margin | +12.8 | MIN by 12.8 expected |
Injury report
As of Leo’s read. “Counted” means Leo lowered the team’s number for that player: fully when out, 40% when day to day.
Nobody listed.
- Anthony Edwards Out Knee Surgery · counted, 33.8 min a game
- Donte DiVincenzo Out Achilles Surgery
Form
1-5 this season · 113 scored, 126.2 allowed a game
- L 111-136 vs CLE 10-31
- L 100-132 vs HOU 10-28
- W 110-102 vs IND 10-26
- L 116-127 at PHI 10-24
- L 125-132 vs CHI 10-23
4-3 this season · 120 scored, 108.7 allowed a game
- L 111-121 at SA 10-31
- W 127-101 vs LAC 10-30
- L 114-119 vs GS 10-28
- L 125-127 at CLE 10-26
- W 117-94 vs TOR 10-25
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro | 6 | 30.2 | 22 | 21.6 | 4.8 | 4.2 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 6 | 28 | 16.2 | 15 | 7.2 | 3 |
| Kyle Kuzma | 6 | 27 | 11.3 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.8 |
| Ryan Rollins | 6 | 26.3 | 11.2 | 11.6 | 4.3 | 4.8 |
| Myles Turner | 6 | 26 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 |
| Kasparas Jakucionis | 6 | 22.5 | 8.3 | 7 | 2.8 | 4 |
| Kel'el Ware | 6 | 19.7 | 13 | 14.2 | 8.7 | 0.8 |
| AJ Green | 6 | 19.2 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 2 | 1.3 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards Out | 4 | 33.8 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 |
| Jaden McDaniels | 7 | 33.4 | 17.3 | 17.8 | 6 | 3.6 |
| Jonathan Kuminga | 7 | 30.4 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 4.7 | 2.6 |
| Rudy Gobert | 6 | 30 | 7 | 7.4 | 12.3 | 1.5 |
| Ayo Dosunmu | 7 | 29.3 | 15.3 | 15.4 | 5 | 3.6 |
| LaMelo Ball | 7 | 25.3 | 14.4 | 13.6 | 3.3 | 6.3 |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | 7 | 22 | 12 | 12.2 | 3.6 | 2.6 |
| Joan Beringer | 7 | 18.7 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 0.7 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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