NBA · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 8:30 PM ET · Toyota Center (Houston)
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Houston Rockets: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. MIN at HOU.
Minnesota Timberwolves31%Leo win chance
Houston Rockets69%Leo win chanceBoth have HOU winning: Leo by 7, DraftKings by 7.5. They are 0.5 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: MIN 109, HOU 116 (total 225). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has HOU 69%, but the price is -278, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has HOU by 7
- Injuries: MIN is missing more, 3.5 pts toward HOU.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to HOU.
- Team strength: HOU rates 1.6 pts better than MIN on results so far.
What could still move it. Clint Capela (HOU, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.3 toward MIN; if he plays, 0.2 toward HOU. Terrence Shannon Jr. (MIN, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.6 toward HOU; if he plays, 0.4 toward MIN.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to HOU’s expected margin. Positive helps HOU, negative helps MIN.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +1.6 | HOU rated +8.4, MIN +6.7 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | HOU 2 days, MIN 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +3.5 | Value of regulars on the injury report: HOU 0.8, MIN 16.8 |
| Leo’s margin | +6.9 | HOU by 6.9 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Terrence Shannon Jr. Day to day Hip Bruise · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 22 min a game
- Anthony Edwards Out Knee Surgery · in Leo’s number, plays 33.8 min a game
- Donte DiVincenzo Out Achilles Surgery
- Clint Capela Day to day Ankle Sprain · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 10.6 min a game
- Steven Adams Out Calf Strain
Form
5-3 this season · 119 scored, 107.6 allowed a game
- W 112-100 vs MIL 11-02
- L 111-121 at SA 10-31
- W 127-101 vs LAC 10-30
- L 114-119 vs GS 10-28
- L 125-127 at CLE 10-26
7-1 this season · 119.3 scored, 106.4 allowed a game
- W 109-93 vs BOS 11-02
- W 119-98 vs OKC 10-31
- L 111-116 at DAL 10-30
- W 132-100 at MIL 10-28
- W 120-110 vs ATL 10-26
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards Out | 4 | 33.8 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 |
| Jaden McDaniels | 8 | 32.9 | 16.8 | 17.6 | 6 | 3.5 |
| Jonathan Kuminga | 8 | 30.8 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 |
| Ayo Dosunmu | 8 | 30.3 | 15.8 | 17.4 | 5.9 | 4.1 |
| Rudy Gobert | 7 | 30.1 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 12 | 1.4 |
| LaMelo Ball | 8 | 26.3 | 16.9 | 17.4 | 3.6 | 5.9 |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. Day to day | 7 | 22 | 12 | 12.2 | 3.6 | 2.6 |
| Joan Beringer | 8 | 18.1 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 0.9 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 8 | 34.5 | 18.4 | 19.2 | 6.4 | 2.4 |
| Alperen Sengun | 6 | 34.5 | 23.3 | 23.4 | 8.7 | 7.8 |
| Kevin Durant | 8 | 33.6 | 20.8 | 18.8 | 5.3 | 3.1 |
| Amen Thompson | 8 | 32.6 | 16 | 15 | 6.1 | 3.6 |
| Fred VanVleet | 6 | 30 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 3.7 | 6.8 |
| Tari Eason | 8 | 24.6 | 10.4 | 10 | 5.9 | 1.3 |
| Marcus Smart | 5 | 24 | 11 | 11 | 3.2 | 2.8 |
| Reed Sheppard | 5 | 22 | 10 | 10 | 2.4 | 4 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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