NBA · Monday, November 9, 2026 · 7:30 PM ET · Scotiabank Arena
Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. MEM at TOR.
Memphis Grizzlies39%Leo win chance
Toronto Raptors62%Leo win chanceBoth have TOR winning: Leo by 4, DraftKings by 2.5. They are 1.5 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: MEM 113, TOR 117 (total 230). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
Why Leo has TOR by 4
- Team strength: TOR rates 2.3 pts better than MEM on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to TOR.
What could still move it. Scottie Barnes (TOR, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 1.4 toward MEM; if he plays, 0.9 toward TOR. Immanuel Quickley (TOR, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 1.0 toward MEM; if he plays, 0.6 toward TOR.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to TOR’s expected margin. Positive helps TOR, negative helps MEM.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +2.3 | TOR rated +2.8, MEM +0.3 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | TOR 3 days, MEM 3 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | 0.0 | Value of regulars on the injury report: TOR 7.1, MEM 7.1 |
| Leo’s margin | +4.1 | TOR by 4.1 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Scotty Pippen Jr. Out Back Soreness · in Leo’s number, plays 16.2 min a game
- Isaiah Stewart Out Knee Bruise · in Leo’s number, plays 18.3 min a game
- Richie Saunders Out Knee Surgery
- Nate Bittle Out Foot Fracture
- Immanuel Quickley Day to day Hamstring · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 28.2 min a game
- Scottie Barnes Day to day Groin Soreness · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 33.4 min a game
- Kawhi Leonard Out Knee Inflammation
Form
6-3 this season · 117.9 scored, 111.8 allowed a game
- L 97-128 vs OKC 11-06
- L 103-107 vs IND 11-04
- L 134-135 vs NO 11-02
- W 136-105 vs SAC 10-31
- W 124-103 at POR 10-29
5-4 this season · 118.2 scored, 112.8 allowed a game
- W 121-107 at MIL 11-06
- L 109-128 at DEN 11-04
- W 125-118 at LAC 11-02
- L 125-131 at LAL 11-01
- L 114-121 vs ORL 10-30
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Boozer | 9 | 32 | 15.6 | 16.2 | 10 | 5.2 |
| Ty Jerome | 8 | 30.5 | 26.6 | 21.8 | 3.4 | 5.3 |
| Cedric Coward | 8 | 28.5 | 13.8 | 14 | 8.8 | 2.4 |
| Jaylen Wells | 9 | 27 | 10.7 | 7.4 | 3 | 1.3 |
| Jerami Grant | 9 | 24 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Zach Edey | 8 | 20.6 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 1 |
| Javon Small | 2 | 20.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 |
| Cam Spencer | 9 | 19.7 | 8.9 | 9 | 3.4 | 5.1 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Barnes Day to day | 8 | 33.4 | 23.5 | 27.4 | 7.6 | 5.1 |
| RJ Barrett | 9 | 33 | 21.6 | 21.2 | 6.1 | 3.9 |
| Immanuel Quickley Day to day | 8 | 31.8 | 17.4 | 17 | 3.5 | 5.8 |
| Ja'Kobe Walter | 9 | 29.1 | 10.9 | 9 | 4 | 2.4 |
| Kawhi Leonard Out | 2 | 26 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 7.5 | 1.5 |
| Jamal Shead | 9 | 22.9 | 6 | 6 | 2.1 | 6.6 |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | 9 | 22.2 | 10.7 | 13.8 | 5 | 1.3 |
| Jakob Poeltl | 7 | 21.6 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 1.1 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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