NBA · Friday, November 6, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET · Fiserv Forum
Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. TOR at MIL.
Toronto Raptors68%Leo win chance
Milwaukee Bucks32%Leo win chanceBoth have TOR winning: Leo by 6.5, DraftKings by 6.5. Same number, so no lean.
Projected score: TOR 118, MIL 111 (total 229). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has TOR 68%, but there is no moneyline yet.
Why Leo has TOR by 6.5
- Team strength: TOR rates 9.4 pts better than MIL on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to MIL.
- Injuries: TOR is missing more, 0.9 pts toward MIL.
What could still move it. Scottie Barnes (TOR, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 1.4 toward MIL; if he plays, 0.9 toward TOR.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to MIL’s expected margin. Positive helps MIL, negative helps TOR.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | -9.4 | MIL rated -7.5, TOR +2.4 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | MIL 2 days, TOR 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +0.9 | Value of regulars on the injury report: MIL 0, TOR 4.3 |
| Leo’s margin | -6.7 | TOR by 6.7 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Kyle Anderson Day to day Illness
- Scottie Barnes Day to day Groin Soreness · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 33.4 min a game
- Kawhi Leonard Out Knee Inflammation
- Nate Bittle Out Foot Fracture
- Kam Jones Day to day Ankle
Form
4-4 this season · 117.9 scored, 113.5 allowed a game
- L 109-128 at DEN 11-04
- W 125-118 at LAC 11-02
- L 125-131 at LAL 11-01
- L 114-121 vs ORL 10-30
- W 129-99 vs ORL 10-28
1-7 this season · 110 scored, 122.3 allowed a game
- L 102-109 at BOS 11-04
- L 100-112 at MIN 11-02
- L 111-136 vs CLE 10-31
- L 100-132 vs HOU 10-28
- W 110-102 vs IND 10-26
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Barnes Day to day | 8 | 33.4 | 23.5 | 27.4 | 7.6 | 5.1 |
| RJ Barrett | 8 | 32.5 | 20.9 | 20.8 | 6 | 3.9 |
| Immanuel Quickley | 8 | 31.8 | 17.4 | 17 | 3.5 | 5.8 |
| Ja'Kobe Walter | 8 | 29.1 | 11.4 | 10.4 | 3.8 | 2.5 |
| Kawhi Leonard Out | 2 | 26 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 7.5 | 1.5 |
| Jamal Shead | 8 | 21.5 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 2 | 5.4 |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | 8 | 20.8 | 9.6 | 12 | 4.8 | 1.3 |
| Jakob Poeltl | 6 | 20 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro | 8 | 30.6 | 22.3 | 21.4 | 5 | 3.9 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 8 | 28.4 | 16.8 | 14.4 | 6.6 | 2.8 |
| Myles Turner | 8 | 27.9 | 8.5 | 9 | 5.6 | 2.6 |
| Kyle Kuzma | 8 | 26.4 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3 |
| Ryan Rollins | 8 | 24.9 | 11.3 | 11 | 4.8 | 4.5 |
| Kasparas Jakucionis | 8 | 21.1 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 4 |
| AJ Green | 8 | 19.9 | 7.3 | 6 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Kel'el Ware | 8 | 18.9 | 10.3 | 9 | 8.3 | 0.8 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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