NBA · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 9:00 PM ET · Ball Arena
Toronto Raptors vs Denver Nuggets: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. TOR at DEN.
Toronto Raptors53%Leo win chance
Denver Nuggets47%Leo win chanceProjected score: TOR 115, DEN 115 (total 230). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
Why Leo has TOR by 0.5
- Team strength: TOR rates 2.6 pts better than DEN on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to DEN.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to DEN’s expected margin. Positive helps DEN, negative helps TOR.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | -2.6 | DEN rated +1, TOR +3.8 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | DEN 2 days, TOR 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | 0.0 | Value of regulars on the injury report: DEN 0.3, TOR 0.1 |
| Leo’s margin | -0.9 | TOR by 0.9 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Kawhi Leonard Out Knee Inflammation
- Jakob Poeltl Day to day Shoulder Inflammation · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 16.8 min a game
- Nate Bittle Out Foot Fracture
- Cameron Johnson Day to day Ankle · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 26.3 min a game
- Alpha Diallo Day to day Wrist
- Spencer Jones Out Hamstring Not Specified
- Julian Strawther Out Knee Sprain
Form
4-3 this season · 119.1 scored, 111.4 allowed a game
- W 125-118 at LAC 11-02
- L 125-131 at LAL 11-01
- L 114-121 vs ORL 10-30
- W 129-99 vs ORL 10-28
- L 94-117 at MIN 10-25
3-3 this season · 113.3 scored, 115.7 allowed a game
- L 110-118 vs POR 11-02
- W 127-120 at PHX 10-30
- W 104-91 at NO 10-28
- L 114-134 vs GS 10-26
- W 141-135 vs NO 10-24
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Barnes | 7 | 33.6 | 24.4 | 24 | 7.9 | 5 |
| RJ Barrett | 7 | 32.4 | 20.7 | 20.4 | 6.1 | 4 |
| Immanuel Quickley | 7 | 31.7 | 18 | 18.2 | 3.9 | 5.6 |
| Ja'Kobe Walter | 7 | 29.4 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 |
| Kawhi Leonard Out | 2 | 26 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 7.5 | 1.5 |
| Jamal Shead | 7 | 21.7 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 5.3 |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | 7 | 20.4 | 9.1 | 10 | 5 | 1.1 |
| Jakob Poeltl Day to day | 5 | 20.2 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 6 | 38.3 | 27.3 | 31.6 | 5.5 | 5.7 |
| Nikola Jokic | 6 | 36.8 | 22 | 23.8 | 9.7 | 9 |
| Christian Braun | 6 | 36.2 | 15.2 | 16.8 | 4 | 2.2 |
| Aaron Gordon | 6 | 30.2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 6 | 2.8 |
| Cameron Johnson Day to day | 3 | 26.3 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 |
| DeMar DeRozan | 6 | 25.2 | 10.7 | 10.2 | 2 | 2.7 |
| Trevon Brazile | 6 | 22 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 0.3 |
| Bryce Hopkins | 4 | 16.5 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.5 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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