NBA · Monday, November 9, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · Spectrum Center
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Charlotte Hornets: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. CLE at CHA.
Cleveland Cavaliers72%Leo win chance
Charlotte Hornets28%Leo win chanceBoth have CLE winning: Leo by 8.5, DraftKings by 8.5. Same number, so no lean.
Projected score: CLE 114, CHA 106 (total 220). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has CLE 72%, but the price is -337, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has CLE by 8.5
- Team strength: CLE rates 9.9 pts better than CHA on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to CHA.
What could still move it. Moussa Diabate (CHA, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.8 toward CLE; if he plays, 0.5 toward CHA. Jarrett Allen (CLE, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 1.1 toward CHA; if he plays, 0.7 toward CLE.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to CHA’s expected margin. Positive helps CHA, negative helps CLE.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | -9.9 | CHA rated -7.5, CLE +2.9 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | +0.1 | CHA 3 days, CLE 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | -0.1 | Value of regulars on the injury report: CHA 6.9, CLE 6.4 |
| Leo’s margin | -8.1 | CLE by 8.1 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Sam Merrill Out Elbow · in Leo’s number, plays 23.1 min a game
- Jarrett Allen Day to day Knee · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 25.1 min a game
- Jaylon Tyson Out Ankle Sprain · in Leo’s number, plays 20.8 min a game
- Grant Williams Out Hamstring
- Kon Knueppel Out Hamstring Strain
- Moussa Diabate Day to day Quadriceps · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 28.8 min a game
- Dennis Schroder Out Hamstring Strain · in Leo’s number, plays 30 min a game
- Brandon Miller Out Groin Soreness · in Leo’s number, plays 31 min a game
Form
5-5 this season · 117 scored, 114.1 allowed a game
- L 97-109 vs NY 11-07
- W 119-95 vs PHI 11-06
- L 116-124 at OKC 11-04
- L 112-117 vs OKC 11-02
- W 136-111 at MIL 10-31
3-7 this season · 96.3 scored, 110.2 allowed a game
- L 80-119 vs BOS 11-06
- L 104-114 at BKN 11-04
- L 91-124 vs DET 11-02
- L 104-109 vs PHI 10-31
- L 79-95 at WSH 10-30
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | 10 | 33.5 | 24 | 23.8 | 5.1 | 5.6 |
| James Harden | 10 | 33.3 | 15.7 | 14 | 5 | 5.8 |
| Evan Mobley | 10 | 32.8 | 18.4 | 18.6 | 8.1 | 3.7 |
| Peyton Watson | 8 | 28.4 | 11.3 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 2.9 |
| Jarrett Allen Day to day | 8 | 25.1 | 13.3 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 1.3 |
| Sam Merrill Out | 9 | 23.1 | 7.7 | 8 | 3.4 | 1.9 |
| Meleek Thomas | 7 | 22.4 | 12.3 | 12 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Jaylon Tyson Out | 5 | 20.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 2.8 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Miller Out | 10 | 31 | 20.6 | 15.6 | 5 | 2.2 |
| Dennis Schroder Out | 9 | 30 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 4.9 |
| Naz Reid | 10 | 29.3 | 16.6 | 16.2 | 8.1 | 1.9 |
| Moussa Diabate Day to day | 9 | 28.8 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 2 |
| Grayson Allen | 10 | 26 | 14.1 | 13 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| Sion James | 10 | 24.9 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 3 | 2.5 |
| Royce O'Neale | 10 | 18.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 0.7 |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 10 | 17.2 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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