NBA · Friday, November 6, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · Spectrum Center
Boston Celtics vs Charlotte Hornets: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. BOS at CHA.
Boston Celtics70%Leo win chance
Charlotte Hornets30%Leo win chanceBoth have BOS winning: Leo by 7.5, DraftKings by 9.5. They are 2 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: BOS 110, CHA 102 (total 212). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has BOS 70%, but the price is -354, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has BOS by 7.5
- Team strength: BOS rates 8.6 pts better than CHA on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to CHA.
- Injuries: CHA is missing more, 0.5 pts toward BOS.
What could still move it. Moussa Diabate (CHA, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.8 toward BOS; if he plays, 0.5 toward CHA.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to CHA’s expected margin. Positive helps CHA, negative helps BOS.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | -8.6 | CHA rated -5.3, BOS +3.7 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | CHA 2 days, BOS 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | -0.5 | Value of regulars on the injury report: CHA 2.3, BOS 0 |
| Leo’s margin | -7.3 | BOS by 7.3 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Devin Carter Out Illness
- Dennis Schroder Day to day Thigh · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 30 min a game
- Moussa Diabate Day to day Quadriceps · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 28.8 min a game
- Kon Knueppel Out Hamstring Strain
- Grant Williams Out Hamstring
Form
6-2 this season · 114.3 scored, 108.3 allowed a game
- W 109-102 vs MIL 11-04
- L 93-109 at HOU 11-02
- W 108-97 at ORL 11-01
- W 125-111 vs CHI 10-30
- W 125-124 vs BKN 10-27
3-6 this season · 98.1 scored, 109.2 allowed a game
- L 104-114 at BKN 11-04
- L 91-124 vs DET 11-02
- L 104-109 vs PHI 10-31
- L 79-95 at WSH 10-30
- L 89-97 at DET 10-28
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | 7 | 35.1 | 27 | 28 | 6 | 7.9 |
| Paul George | 7 | 31.6 | 21.3 | 19.2 | 5.6 | 5 |
| Derrick White | 8 | 30.8 | 12.8 | 13.6 | 3.3 | 5.1 |
| Payton Pritchard | 8 | 26.8 | 13 | 11 | 2.8 | 3.6 |
| Neemias Queta | 8 | 22.5 | 9.8 | 10.6 | 6.3 | 1.4 |
| Sam Hauser | 8 | 21.3 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| Baylor Scheierman | 8 | 20.9 | 5.9 | 7 | 4.3 | 1.3 |
| Mitchell Robinson | 7 | 19.3 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 0.6 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Miller | 9 | 32.9 | 22 | 20.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 |
| Dennis Schroder Day to day | 9 | 30 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 4.9 |
| Naz Reid | 9 | 29.7 | 16.9 | 14.8 | 8.3 | 1.9 |
| Moussa Diabate Day to day | 9 | 28.8 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 2 |
| Grayson Allen | 9 | 26.4 | 15.7 | 14.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| Sion James | 9 | 25.3 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 3 | 2.8 |
| Royce O'Neale | 9 | 18 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Coby White | 2 | 17 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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