NBA · Friday, November 6, 2026 · 7:30 PM ET · Rocket Arena
Philadelphia 76ers vs Cleveland Cavaliers: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. PHI at CLE.
Philadelphia 76ers49%Leo win chance
Cleveland Cavaliers51%Leo win chanceLeo calls it even; DraftKings has PHI by 2.5. They are 2.5 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: PHI 115, CLE 115 (total 230). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
Why Leo has a pick'em
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to CLE.
- Injuries: CLE is missing more, 1.4 pts toward PHI.
What could still move it. Jarrett Allen (CLE, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 1.1 toward PHI; if he plays, 0.7 toward CLE. Tyrese Proctor (CLE, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.3 toward PHI; if he plays, 0.2 toward CLE. Peyton Watson (CLE, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.3 toward PHI; if he plays, 0.2 toward CLE.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to CLE’s expected margin. Positive helps CLE, negative helps PHI.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | -0.1 | CLE rated +2.4, PHI +2.5 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | CLE 2 days, PHI 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | -1.4 | Value of regulars on the injury report: CLE 6.4, PHI 0 |
| Leo’s margin | +0.2 | CLE by 0.2 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Adem Bona Day to day Back Sprain · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 14.2 min a game
- Dominick Barlow Out Back Fracture
- Ariel Hukporti Out Achilles Surgery
- Tyrese Proctor Day to day Ankle Sprain · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 12.6 min a game
- Jaylon Tyson Out Ankle Sprain · in Leo’s number, plays 20.8 min a game
- Peyton Watson Day to day Hamstring Soreness · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 28.3 min a game
- Jarrett Allen Day to day Knee · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 25.1 min a game
Form
8-1 this season · 111 scored, 105.2 allowed a game
- W 112-106 at DET 11-04
- W 126-107 vs CHI 11-02
- W 109-104 at CHA 10-31
- W 98-93 vs NY 10-30
- W 114-109 at IND 10-28
4-4 this season · 119.3 scored, 117.1 allowed a game
- L 116-124 at OKC 11-04
- L 112-117 vs OKC 11-02
- W 136-111 at MIL 10-31
- L 111-114 at ATL 10-29
- W 121-111 vs WSH 10-28
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 9 | 37.1 | 28 | 27.4 | 3.8 | 5.4 |
| Jaylen Brown | 8 | 36.3 | 21.8 | 21.4 | 6.9 | 3.9 |
| VJ Edgecombe | 8 | 33.5 | 12.5 | 12.6 | 7 | 3 |
| Joel Embiid | 7 | 33.3 | 19.6 | 20 | 10 | 4.4 |
| LeBron James | 7 | 33 | 15.7 | 15.8 | 7.4 | 7.4 |
| Dean Wade | 7 | 26.3 | 4.1 | 3 | 3.1 | 2.1 |
| Anfernee Simons | 9 | 22.9 | 10 | 13.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 9 | 22.7 | 5.8 | 4 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | 8 | 33.6 | 16.6 | 17.2 | 5.3 | 6.3 |
| Donovan Mitchell | 8 | 33.1 | 22.5 | 20 | 5 | 5.5 |
| Evan Mobley | 8 | 32.9 | 18.8 | 18.8 | 8.3 | 3.5 |
| Peyton Watson Day to day | 6 | 28.3 | 10.8 | 11.4 | 4 | 3 |
| Jarrett Allen Day to day | 8 | 25.1 | 13.3 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 1.3 |
| Sam Merrill | 8 | 24.4 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| Meleek Thomas | 5 | 21.2 | 13 | 13 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| Jaylon Tyson Out | 5 | 20.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 2.8 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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