MLB matchup analysis
Angels vs Mariners Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Thursday, September 24, 2026 at T-Mobile Park · 9:40 PM ET
Leo prediction: Seattle Mariners moneyline
The case for Seattle Mariners
The case for Los Angeles Angels
What to watch
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Seattle Mariners is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 72.6% model win probability and 7.2/10 Lab Rating. Leo projects 72.6% against a 54.8% no-vig market number, a 17.8% model edge at -128. Seattle Mariners owns the starting pitcher edge by 26 points. Bullpen read: Both bullpens stressed. Seattle Mariners's pen efficiency: Average (4.8/10). Lineup check: Seattle Mariners is swinging a hot bat (+0.066 OPS); Los Angeles Angels is near its season form (-0.002 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Angels 6, Mariners 4
How the analysis held up
Los Angeles Angels won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Grayson Rodriguez: 5.1 IP, 4 ER (6.75 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 4 ER (7.20 ERA). The edge held up. Neither starter actually pitched well tonight, though — this is a smaller-of-two-bads comparison, not a starter who dealt.
The Los Angeles Angels bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 4.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
The Seattle Mariners bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 1 earned run over 3.2 innings (2.45 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Seattle Mariners pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
Los Angeles Angels scored 6, 3.7 more than the 2.3 pregame projection.
Likely driver: Bryan Woo, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 6.75 ERA, and the Los Angeles Angels bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 4.0 innings).
Game information
| Matchup | Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|
| Date | Thursday, September 24, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 PM ET |
| Venue | T-Mobile Park |
| Starting pitchers | Grayson Rodriguez vs Bryan Woo |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 56°F, 16% precipitation chance, 2 mph wind from NE. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Angels | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 45 | 71 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.96 | 3.92 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.54 | 1.08 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.0 | 9.0 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 10.7% | 19.2% |
| K% (higher is better) | 19.7% | 24.4% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.0% | 5.3% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.7 | 1.9 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 45.5% | 42.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 54.5% | 57.8% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Bryan Woo a 26-point edge over Grayson Rodriguez, driven mainly by WHIP (1.08 vs 1.54) and BB/9 (1.9 vs 3.7).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Angels are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 3.9 runs per game over the last 15 days; Mariners are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 5.1 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (-0.57 against -0.40).
| Metric | Angels | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 3-7 on the road | 4-6 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.677 | 0.756 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.304 | 0.333 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.9 | 5.1 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 26.6% | 19.6% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Angels | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.653 (-0.026 vs szn) | 0.703 (+0.013 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.78 (-0.254 vs szn) | 4.52 (+0.468 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.295 (-0.008 vs szn) | 0.313 |
| K% (lower is better) | 26.9% (+1.4% vs szn) | 22.6% |
Over the last 30 days the Mariners have been the better offense, 0.313 wOBA to 0.295. Angels are striking out at 26.9% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Angels | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 60-98 | 74-84 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.57 | -0.40 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.03 | 4.05 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.60 | 4.45 |
| Season OPS | 0.679 | 0.690 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 25.5% | 23.0% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.672 | 0.708 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Angels and Mariners are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Angels | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 8.9/10, High risk | 7.7/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 2.6/10, Struggling | 4.8/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 10.0/10, High risk | 7.8/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 22.3 | 18.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 6.85 | 4.42 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.84 | 1.36 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every Leo pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. Leo provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.