MLB matchup analysis
Mariners vs Rockies Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at Coors Field · 3:10 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Mariners vs Rockies
The case for Seattle Mariners
The case for Colorado Rockies
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Mariners 2, Rockies 1
How the analysis held up
Seattle Mariners won, the side Leo's model favored.
Kade Anderson (Seattle Mariners), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Tomoyuki Sugano: 7.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 1 ER (1.80 ERA). The edge held up. Both starters were sharp; the edge is a narrow one between two good outings.
The Seattle Mariners bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 1 earned run over 2.0 innings (4.50 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
The Colorado Rockies bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 1 earned run over 4.0 innings (2.25 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Seattle Mariners scored 2, 3.2 fewer than the 5.2 pregame projection.
Colorado Rockies scored 1, 2.8 fewer than the 3.8 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 20, 2026 |
| First pitch | 3:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Coors Field |
| Starting pitchers | Kade Anderson vs Tomoyuki Sugano |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 74°F, 4% precipitation chance, 11 mph wind from NE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Mariners | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 62 | 53 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.18 | 5.36 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.21 | 1.33 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.8 | 5.5 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 15.3% | 8.7% |
| K% (higher is better) | 21.4% | 14.4% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.1% | 5.7% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.8% | 44.7% |
| Fly-ball rate | 56.3% | 55.3% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Kade Anderson a 9-point edge over Tomoyuki Sugano, driven mainly by HR/9 (1.11 vs 1.89) and K/9 (7.8 vs 5.5).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Mariners are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 5.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; Rockies are 2-8 in their last 10 and averaging 4.6 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Mariners carry the better run differential per game (-0.36 against -1.13).
| Metric | Mariners | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 2-8 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 3-7 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.765 | 0.751 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.334 | 0.332 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.2 | 4.6 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 21.6% | 23.4% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Mariners | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.724 (+0.032 vs szn) | 0.734 |
| Runs per game | 4.79 (+0.722 vs szn) | 4.00 (-0.660 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.320 (+0.012 vs szn) | 0.325 |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.2% | 23.3% |
Over the last 30 days the Rockies have been the better offense, 0.325 wOBA to 0.320.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Mariners | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 72-83 | 57-98 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.36 | -1.13 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.06 | 4.66 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.42 | 5.79 |
| Season OPS | 0.694 | 0.741 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 23.1% | 22.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.714 | 0.712 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Mariners and Rockies are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Mariners | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.2/10, Tired | 9.1/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 3.9/10, Below average | 5.1/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 7.8/10, Tired | 9.1/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 19.7 | 37.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 5.49 | 4.14 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.53 | 1.24 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 5.5 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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