MLB awards · Published November 2, 2026 · By Lynold Rivera
2026 Cy Young race: what the numbers say about every contender
The Cy Young Award winners are announced on Wednesday, November 11, on MLB Network. Here are the leading contenders in each league side by side, using the season numbers Leo tracked all year, plus one thing only Leo has: how each pitcher’s team did in the starts Leo analyzed before first pitch.
American League
Cam Schlittler of the Yankees has the strongest all around line: a 1.95 ERA over 193.2 innings, the most innings of any AL contender here, with 239 strikeouts. Dylan Cease of the Blue Jays misses the most bats (12.7 strikeouts per nine innings) but also walks the most (4.1 per nine). Drew Rasmussen of the Rays has the best control in the group (1.6 walks per nine) and the lowest WHIP (0.90). Parker Messick of the Guardians and Sonny Gray of the Red Sox round out the field.
| Pitcher | ERA | IP | K | K/9 | BB/9 | WHIP | Leo score | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Schlittler New York Yankees | 1.95 | 193.2 | 239 | 11.1 | 2.3 | 0.92 | 84 | Sep 24 |
| Dylan Cease Toronto Blue Jays | 2.37 | 167.1 | 236 | 12.7 | 4.1 | 1.08 | 81 | Sep 18 |
| Parker Messick Cleveland Guardians | 2.55 | 183.1 | 191 | 9.4 | 2.4 | 1.04 | 81 | Sep 22 |
| Drew Rasmussen Tampa Bay Rays | 2.63 | 171.1 | 173 | 9.1 | 1.6 | 0.90 | 81 | Sep 22 |
| Sonny Gray Boston Red Sox | 2.72 | 169 | 149 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 1.15 | 75 | Sep 23 |
National League
Jacob Misiorowski of the Brewers leads every rate stat that matters here: a 1.86 ERA, 13.1 strikeouts per nine and a 0.80 WHIP, and he carries Leo’s highest pitcher score of any contender (85). Chris Sale of the Braves is the closest on rates (2.16 ERA, the best strikeout to walk ratio in either league at 6.5), in fewer innings (162.2). Cristopher Sánchez of the Phillies brings the volume: 207 innings, the most of anyone on this page. Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Dodgers posted a 0.87 WHIP, second only to Misiorowski. Leo’s file on Jesús Luzardo stops at September 1, so his line here is shorter than his final one.
| Pitcher | ERA | IP | K | K/9 | BB/9 | WHIP | Leo score | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski Milwaukee Brewers | 1.86 | 169.1 | 247 | 13.1 | 2.2 | 0.80 | 85 | Sep 20 |
| Chris Sale Atlanta Braves | 2.16 | 162.2 | 200 | 11.1 | 1.7 | 0.98 | 84 | Sep 23 |
| Cristopher Sánchez Philadelphia Phillies | 2.91 | 207 | 231 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 1.20 | 75 | Sep 25 |
| Jesús Luzardo Philadelphia Phillies | 3.09 | 163 | 203 | 11.2 | 2.8 | 1.12 | 76 | Sep 1 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto Los Angeles Dodgers | 2.51 | 179 | 178 | 8.9 | 2.1 | 0.87 | 82 | Sep 23 |
How their teams did in the starts Leo analyzed
Leo analyzed every game from early July through the end of the season and saved its win chance before first pitch. These are the regular season starts by each contender in that window. Samples are small (9 to 14 starts), so read them as context, not proof of anything.
American League
| Pitcher | Starts Leo analyzed | Team record | Leo’s avg win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Schlittler | 14 | 8-6 | 63% |
| Dylan Cease | 11 | 7-4 | 61% |
| Parker Messick | 12 | 6-6 | 57% |
| Drew Rasmussen | 11 | 11-0 | 62% |
| Sonny Gray | 13 | 9-4 | 67% |
National League
| Pitcher | Starts Leo analyzed | Team record | Leo’s avg win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | 10 | 10-0 | 69% |
| Chris Sale | 11 | 7-4 | 59% |
| Cristopher Sánchez | 12 | 9-3 | 56% |
| Jesús Luzardo | 9 | 7-2 | 56% |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 11 | 6-5 | 60% |
Two contenders stand out: the Brewers won all 10 of Misiorowski’s starts that Leo analyzed, and the Rays won all 11 of Rasmussen’s. Leo gave Misiorowski’s Brewers a 69% chance on average, the highest of any contender.
How to read these numbers
ERA is earned runs allowed per nine innings. K/9 and BB/9 are strikeouts and walks per nine innings; a pitcher who strikes out many and walks few controls the game himself. WHIP is walks plus hits per inning. Leo score is Leo’s own 0 to 100 rating of a starter, built from ERA, WHIP, strikeout to walk ratio and how much he has pitched; it is one input to Leo’s win chance for every game.
Season numbers are the ones Leo had on file entering each pitcher’s last regular season start it analyzed (the Through column), so that final start is not included and official totals may differ slightly. Contenders are the top five in each league in MLB.com’s final voter poll of the season (September 15). Source data: MLB Stats API.
More: every 2026 team, game by game · MLB pitching metrics explained · every MLB game page