Week 10 · Thursday 20:15

WAS at NYG

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · Division game

Washington Commanders at New York Giants

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 10 card →

Leo’s read

Early read (Nov 6, 2:44 PM ET). Leo updates it every morning and again on game day; the last read before kickoff is frozen and graded. Player props are added on game day. Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment, and the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

A call is graded after the game. PASS means no call: a moneyline needs more than 60% and a price better than -230; a spread needs Leo 1 point off the line and his two models agreeing on the winner; a total needs Leo 1.5 to 7 points off the line.

Why Leo has the Commanders at 50%

What moved Leo's win chance away from a coin flip for this game, from Leo's early read, which updates until kickoff.

• Leo's win chance comes from four things: home field, the starting quarterbacks, each offense and each defense, all measured from games before this one.

Leo's win chance and its expected margin come from two separate models. Here the win chance favours the Washington Commanders at 50%, while the margin model has Giants by 4.9. Read it as a closer game than 50% suggests, which is why Leo makes no spread call.

Leo knows team results, quarterback play and the injury report as of its last read (Nov 6, 2:44 PM ET). It does not know game plans, weather changes or news after that read.

Leo ratings, head to head

Each rating is 0 to 100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. They describe the teams; the “Why Leo has” section above says which of them push Leo’s number.

WAS This season NYG

52 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 46

53 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 51

40 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 45

46 Overall 48

QB 46 · OFF 48 · DEF 34 Last season QB 47 · OFF 53 · DEF 39

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

WAS	Per game, this season	NYG
0.14	Interceptions thrown	0.86
0.57	Interceptions caught	0.86
0.29	Fumbles lost	0.57
1.00	Fumbles forced	0.71
1.57	Takeaways	1.57
0.43	Giveaways	1.43
+1.14	Net turnover margin	+0.14

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

WAS	Offense	NYG
+0.014	EPA per dropback	+0.031
+1.8	Completion % over expected	-1.6
1.2%	Interception rate	2.3%
6.8%	Sack rate taken	8.1%
-0.008	Rush EPA per carry	-0.020
5.9%	Explosive play rate	5.8%
WAS	Defense	NYG
+0.075	EPA allowed per play	+0.029
5.83	Yards allowed per play	5.65
3.7%	Sack rate	2.7%
0.8%	Interception rate forced	1.2%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is WAS, right is NYG.

WAS	This season	NYG
7	Games	7
214.6	Pass yards/g	243.1
126.6	Rush yards/g	116.7
11	Passing TD	11
1	Interceptions thrown	6
260	Pass yards allowed/g	192.1
99.1	Rush yards allowed/g	128.1
4	Interceptions forced	6
WAS	Last season	NYG
195.8	Pass yards/g	217.8
134.7	Rush yards/g	129.1
19	Passing TD	21
12	Interceptions thrown	10
257.1	Pass yards allowed/g	229.9
141.8	Rush yards allowed/g	145.3

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season, from games before this one only.

WAS 2026

Quarterback Leo QB52

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Jayden Daniels	5	91/145	62.8%	976	195.2	6 / 0	6.7

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	5	67	239	3.6	2
Rachaad White	6	47	200	4.3	1

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Stefon Diggs WR1	6	27/44	61.4%	252	42	5
Antonio Williams WR2	7	23/33	69.7%	259	37	1
Chig Okonkwo TE	5	17/24	70.8%	182	36.4	0

NYG 2026

Quarterback Leo QB46

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Jameis Winston	6	90/158	57%	957	159.5	7 / 5	6.1

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Cam Skattebo	6	98	418	4.3	2
Najee Harris	5	31	99	3.2	0

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Malik Nabers WR1	7	48/70	68.6%	605	86.4	2
Malachi Fields WR2	7	16/30	53.3%	248	35.4	1
Isaiah Likely TE	7	41/63	65.1%	395	56.4	5

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

WAS 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Marcus Mariota	10	139/227	61.2%	1695	169.5	10 / 7	7.5

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	17	175	805	4.6	8
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	12	112	500	4.5	6

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR1	16	72/99	72.7%	727	45.4	5
Terry McLaurin WR2	10	38/60	63.3%	582	58.2	3
Zach Ertz TE	13	50/72	69.4%	504	38.8	4

NYG 2025

Quarterback Leo QB47

Player	G	C/ATT	Comp%	Yards	Y/G	TD/INT	Y/A
Jaxson Dart	14	216/339	63.7%	2272	162.3	15 / 5	6.7

Running back

Player	G	Car	Yards	Y/C	TD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.	15	176	740	4.2	2
Devin Singletary	17	119	437	3.7	5

Receivers

Player	G	Rec/Tgt	Catch%	Yards	Y/G	TD
Wan'Dale Robinson WR1	16	92/140	65.7%	1014	63.4	4
Darius Slayton WR2	14	37/63	58.7%	538	38.4	1
Theo Johnson TE	15	45/74	60.8%	528	35.2	5

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

WAS 2026

1. Stefon Diggs WR 5 0 rush · 5 rec
2. Rachaad White RB 3 1 rush · 2 rec
3. Jayden Daniels QB 2 2 rush · 0 rec

NYG 2026

1. Isaiah Likely TE 5 0 rush · 5 rec
2. Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB 3 2 rush · 1 rec
3. Devin Singletary RB 2 1 rush · 1 rec

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage (most attempts, carries and targets), not depth chart.