Week 4 · Thursday 20:15

PITPIT at CLECLE

Huntington Bank Field · outdoors · grass · Division game

PIT moneyline-148
CLE moneyline+124
SpreadPIT -2.5
Total38.5

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 4 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 3), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Oct 1, 2:36 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceCLE 54%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total41.6points, both teams
Leo marginPIT by 1expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Aaron Rodgers PIT QB1 6.435.113 219
Deshaun Watson CLE QB1 7.12913 191

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Jaylen Warren PIT RB1 5.112.813 71
Quinshon Judkins CLE RB1 314.613 47
Rico Dowdle PIT RB2 3.310.712 40
Raheim Sanders CLE RB2 5.82.713 19

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Denzel Boston CLE WR2 12.95.313 64
DK Metcalf PIT WR1 5.57.413 41
Germie Bernard PIT WR3 9.24.312 39
KC Concepcion CLE WR1 4.87.113 31
Roman Wilson PIT WR2 6.44.113 26
Jerry Jeudy CLE WR3 4.54.712 19
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

PIT This season CLE
42 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 35
43 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 33
55 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 58
49 Overall 46
QB 51 · OFF 49 · DEF 52 Last season QB 22 · OFF 24 · DEF 64

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

PIT Per game, this season CLE
0.67Interceptions thrown0.33
1.00Interceptions caught0.67
0.67Fumbles lost0.33
1.67Fumbles forced0.67
2.67Takeaways1.33
1.33Giveaways0.67
+1.33Net turnover margin+0.67

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

PIT Offense CLE
-0.075EPA per dropback-0.122
-1.3Completion % over expected-3.1
1.7%Interception rate2.4%
6.0%Sack rate taken9.0%
-0.047Rush EPA per carry-0.102
5.4%Explosive play rate4.1%
PIT Defense CLE
+0.008EPA allowed per play-0.054
5.79Yards allowed per play5.34
4.5%Sack rate4.5%
1.6%Interception rate forced1.1%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is PIT, right is CLE.

PIT This season CLE
3Games3
233.3Pass yards/g195.7
95.7Rush yards/g87.7
4Passing TD5
2Interceptions thrown1
211Pass yards allowed/g239.3
113Rush yards allowed/g120.3
3Interceptions forced2
PIT Last season CLE
210Pass yards/g185.4
101.1Rush yards/g97
26Passing TD16
10Interceptions thrown18
260.4Pass yards allowed/g189.4
115.9Rush yards allowed/g116.4

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

PIT 2026

Quarterback Leo QB42

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Aaron Rodgers366/113 58.4%700233.3 4 / 26.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jaylen Warren338 2165.70
Rico Dowdle215 372.50

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
DK Metcalf WR13 11/2445.8%98 32.71
Roman Wilson WR23 11/1861.1%114 381
Pat Freiermuth TE3 11/1478.6%108 361
CLE 2026

Quarterback Leo QB35

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Deshaun Watson356/82 68.3%587195.7 5 / 17.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Quinshon Judkins342 12430
Raheim Sanders34 225.50

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
KC Concepcion WR13 12/2060%80 26.70
Denzel Boston WR23 9/1560%195 652
Harold Fannin Jr. TE3 14/1877.8%126 422

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

PIT 2025

Quarterback Leo QB51

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Aaron Rodgers17344/531 64.8%3468204 24 / 86.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jaylen Warren17223 10014.56
Kenny Gainwell18120 5574.65

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
DK Metcalf WR116 61/10458.7%892 55.86
Calvin Austin III WR215 34/6155.7%380 25.33
Jonnu Smith TE18 40/5770.2%221 12.32
CLE 2025

Quarterback Leo QB22

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Shedeur Sanders8120/212 56.6%1400175 7 / 106.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Quinshon Judkins14230 8273.67
Dylan Sampson1565 1752.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jerry Jeudy WR117 50/10647.2%602 35.42
Isaiah Bond WR215 18/4440.9%338 22.50
Harold Fannin Jr. TE16 72/10767.3%731 45.76

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Denzel Boston (CLE, 36%) and DK Metcalf (PIT, 30%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
PIT Leo’s chance
  1. DK Metcalf WR1 30% no TD
  2. Roman Wilson WR2 25% scored
  3. Rico Dowdle RB2 22% no TD
CLE Leo’s chance
  1. Denzel Boston WR2 36% no TD
  2. Quinshon Judkins RB1 23% scored
  3. Raheim Sanders RB2 17% no TD

Final result

PIT 24 – 27 CLE

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

PIT
Aaron Rodgers QB 22/40299 yds3 TD2 INT
Jaylen Warren RB 17 car93 yds0 TD3 rec, 33 yds
Travis Homer RB 2 car-1 yds0 TD
DK Metcalf WR 5/9115 yds0 TD
Roman Wilson WR 3/674 yds1 TD
Jaylen Warren RB 3/633 yds0 TD
CLE
Deshaun Watson QB 24/33268 yds1 TD1 INT
Quinshon Judkins RB 17 car53 yds1 TD6 rec, 43 yds
Raheim Sanders RB 2 car9 yds0 TD2 rec, 7 yds
Jaleel McLaughlin RB 1 car28 yds1 TD
Denzel Boston WR 4/789 yds0 TD
KC Concepcion WR 5/864 yds0 TD
Quinshon Judkins RB 6/743 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerCLE 54%—CLE wonNO PICK
Total points41.638.551OVER · RIGHT
MarginPIT by 1PIT −2.5CLE by 3CLE +2.5 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Aaron Rodgers PIT 215.5219 no side 299 80 More efficient (7.5 vs 6.4 yds/att) NO LEAN
Deshaun Watson CLE 185.5191 no side 268 77 More efficient (8.1 vs 7.1 yds/att) NO LEAN

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jaylen Warren PIT 75.571 UNDER 93 22 More carries (17 vs 12.8 expected) WRONG
Raheim Sanders CLE 5.519 OVER 9 10 Fewer carries (2 vs 2.7 expected) RIGHT
Quinshon Judkins CLE 55.547 UNDER 53 6 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
DK Metcalf PIT 45.541 UNDER 115 74 More efficient (12.8 vs 5.5 yds/tgt) WRONG
Roman Wilson PIT 19.526 OVER 74 48 More efficient (12.3 vs 6.4 yds/tgt) RIGHT
KC Concepcion CLE 37.531 UNDER 64 33 More efficient (8 vs 4.8 yds/tgt) WRONG
Germie Bernard PIT 9.539 OVER 11 28 Fewer targets (2 vs 4.3 expected) RIGHT
Denzel Boston CLE 37.564 OVER 89 25 More targets (7 vs 5.3 expected) RIGHT
Jerry Jeudy CLE 14.519 OVER 36 17 More efficient (12 vs 4.5 yds/tgt) RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.