NBA · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · Capital One Arena
Atlanta Hawks vs Washington Wizards: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. ATL at WSH.
Atlanta Hawks61%Leo win chance
Washington Wizards39%Leo win chanceBoth have ATL winning: Leo by 3.5, DraftKings by 3.5. Same number, so no lean.
Projected score: ATL 115, WSH 111 (total 226). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
Why Leo has ATL by 3.5
- Team strength: ATL rates 5.4 pts better than WSH on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to WSH.
What could still move it. Alex Sarr (WSH, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.5 toward ATL; if he plays, 0.3 toward WSH. Jalen Johnson (ATL, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 1.2 toward WSH; if he plays, 0.8 toward ATL.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to WSH’s expected margin. Positive helps WSH, negative helps ATL.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | -5.4 | WSH rated -4, ATL +1.7 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | WSH 2 days, ATL 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | -0.2 | Value of regulars on the injury report: WSH 6.8, ATL 5.7 |
| Leo’s margin | -3.9 | ATL by 3.9 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Jock Landale Out Hip · in Leo’s number, plays 15.3 min a game
- Jalen Johnson Day to day Ankle · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 32.7 min a game
- Mouhamed Gueye Out Foot Fracture
- Henri Veesaar Out Knee
- Anthony Gill Day to day Back Spasms
- Alex Sarr Day to day Knee Soreness · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 25.5 min a game
- Reece Beekman Out Shoulder
- Tristan Vukcevic Out Hip Pinched Nerve
- Justin Champagnie Out Foot Not Specified · in Leo’s number, plays 18.5 min a game
- Jamir Watkins Out Knee Surgery
Form
4-4 this season · 115.3 scored, 114 allowed a game
- W 108-104 at IND 11-02
- L 99-121 at NO 10-31
- W 114-111 vs CLE 10-29
- L 117-129 vs MIA 10-28
- L 110-120 at HOU 10-26
4-3 this season · 109.4 scored, 107.4 allowed a game
- W 103-94 at ORL 11-02
- W 95-79 vs CHA 10-30
- L 111-121 at CLE 10-28
- L 103-110 at CHA 10-26
- W 124-120 at CHI 10-24
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson Day to day | 7 | 32.7 | 18.3 | 17.8 | 9 | 7.9 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 8 | 30.1 | 21.1 | 21.2 | 3.3 | 2.8 |
| Dyson Daniels | 8 | 29.1 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 4.3 |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 8 | 28.9 | 12 | 14 | 7.5 | 2.6 |
| CJ McCollum | 8 | 26.8 | 14.3 | 13 | 2.8 | 3.9 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 8 | 25.6 | 13.8 | 11.8 | 3.6 | 1.9 |
| Luguentz Dort | 8 | 24.6 | 9.3 | 10 | 3 | 1.4 |
| Kingston Flemings | 7 | 20.3 | 7.1 | 9 | 2.9 | 4.7 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trae Young | 7 | 36.1 | 19.9 | 19.4 | 3.6 | 10 |
| Anthony Davis | 7 | 33.6 | 23 | 23.6 | 9.1 | 2 |
| Kyshawn George | 7 | 32.4 | 16.1 | 16.8 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| AJ Dybantsa | 3 | 30 | 19 | 19 | 4.7 | 1.7 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 7 | 27.3 | 8.1 | 7 | 3.6 | 0.7 |
| Alex Sarr Day to day | 6 | 25.5 | 9.3 | 10 | 5.5 | 2.2 |
| Tre Johnson | 6 | 21 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| Bub Carrington | 7 | 19.7 | 6.1 | 6 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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