NBA · Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 8:30 PM ET · Toyota Center (Houston)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. OKC at HOU.
Oklahoma City Thunder41%Leo win chance
Houston Rockets59%Leo win chanceBoth expect HOU to win. Leo expects a bigger win (HOU by 3) than DraftKings (HOU by 2.5).
Projected score: OKC 108, HOU 111 (total 220). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to HOU’s expected margin. Positive helps HOU, negative helps OKC.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +1.5 | HOU rated +7, OKC +5.4 points against an average team |
| Back to back | -2.0 | HOU played last night |
| Rest | -0.3 | HOU 1 day, OKC 3 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +2.1 | Value of regulars on the injury report: HOU 9.5, OKC 19.2 |
| Leo’s margin | +3.1 | HOU by 3.1 expected |
Injury report
As of Leo’s read. “Counted” means Leo lowered the team’s number for that player: fully when out, 40% when day to day.
- Cason Wallace Out Shoulder Surgery · counted, 16.3 min a game
- Chet Holmgren Out Knee · counted, 30 min a game
- Jalen Williams Out Leg Fracture · counted, 31.7 min a game
- Alex Caruso Out Ankle · counted, 19 min a game
- Thomas Sorber Out Knee
- Nikola Topic Out Back
- Reed Sheppard Out Back · counted, 18.6 min a game
- Fred VanVleet Out Knee · counted, 30.6 min a game
- Steven Adams Out Calf Strain
Form
4-1 this season · 108.2 scored, 104.6 allowed a game
- L 96-120 at DAL 10-28
- W 125-114 vs PHX 10-26
- W 108-101 vs LAC 10-25
- W 96-84 vs DEN 10-22
- W 116-104 at SA 10-20
5-1 this season · 121 scored, 110 allowed a game
- L 111-116 at DAL 10-30
- W 132-100 at MIL 10-28
- W 120-110 vs ATL 10-26
- W 121-114 at ATL 10-24
- W 114-110 at SA 10-23
Key players this season
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 5 | 33 | 26 | 4.6 | 3.4 |
| Jalen Williams Out | 3 | 31.7 | 13.7 | 4.7 | 3.3 |
| Chet Holmgren Out | 3 | 30 | 12 | 9.3 | 1.3 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 5 | 25.4 | 18.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 |
| Jared McCain | 5 | 24 | 11 | 2 | 2.2 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 5 | 23.8 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 2.4 |
| Josh Dix | 2 | 23 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Alex Caruso Out | 4 | 19 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 3.8 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | 6 | 34.8 | 23.3 | 6 | 3 |
| Amen Thompson | 6 | 34.7 | 17.7 | 7.2 | 4.2 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 6 | 34.5 | 17.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 |
| Alperen Sengun | 4 | 34 | 24.5 | 9 | 7 |
| Fred VanVleet Out | 5 | 30.6 | 13 | 4 | 6.4 |
| Tari Eason | 6 | 25.2 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 0.8 |
| Reed Sheppard Out | 4 | 23.3 | 10.5 | 2.8 | 4.8 |
| Marcus Smart | 3 | 21.3 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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