NBA · Friday, November 6, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · State Farm Arena
Washington Wizards vs Atlanta Hawks: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. WSH at ATL.
Washington Wizards25%Leo win chance
Atlanta Hawks75%Leo win chanceBoth have ATL winning: Leo by 9, DraftKings by 7.5. They are 1.5 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: WSH 109, ATL 118 (total 227). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has ATL 75%, but the price is -297, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has ATL by 9
- Team strength: ATL rates 6.7 pts better than WSH on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to ATL.
- Injuries: WSH is missing more, 1.0 pts toward ATL.
What could still move it. Jalen Johnson (ATL, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 1.2 toward WSH; if he plays, 0.8 toward ATL. Anthony Davis (WSH, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 1.5 toward ATL; if he plays, 1.0 toward WSH.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to ATL’s expected margin. Positive helps ATL, negative helps WSH.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +6.7 | ATL rated +2.1, WSH -5 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | ATL 2 days, WSH 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +1.0 | Value of regulars on the injury report: ATL 5.4, WSH 9.9 |
| Leo’s margin | +9.4 | ATL by 9.4 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Anthony Davis Day to day Ankle Sprain · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 33.1 min a game
- Reece Beekman Out Shoulder
- Tristan Vukcevic Out Hip Pinched Nerve
- Justin Champagnie Out Foot Not Specified · in Leo’s number, plays 18.5 min a game
- Jamir Watkins Out Knee Surgery
- Keshon Gilbert Out Knee Inflammation
- Asa Newell Out Toe
- Jock Landale Out Hip · in Leo’s number, plays 13.4 min a game
- Jalen Johnson Day to day Ankle · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 32.7 min a game
- Mouhamed Gueye Out Foot Fracture
- Henri Veesaar Out Knee
Form
4-4 this season · 108.9 scored, 109 allowed a game
- L 105-120 vs ATL 11-04
- W 103-94 at ORL 11-02
- W 95-79 vs CHA 10-30
- L 111-121 at CLE 10-28
- L 103-110 at CHA 10-26
5-4 this season · 115.8 scored, 113 allowed a game
- W 120-105 at WSH 11-04
- W 108-104 at IND 11-02
- L 99-121 at NO 10-31
- W 114-111 vs CLE 10-29
- L 117-129 vs MIA 10-28
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trae Young | 8 | 35.9 | 19.6 | 18 | 3.4 | 9.5 |
| Anthony Davis Day to day | 8 | 33.1 | 23.4 | 25 | 9.3 | 2.1 |
| Kyshawn George | 8 | 32.8 | 17.3 | 17.4 | 4.3 | 4.8 |
| AJ Dybantsa | 4 | 30.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 5 | 2 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 8 | 26.8 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 |
| Alex Sarr | 7 | 25.1 | 9.6 | 10.8 | 6 | 2 |
| Tre Johnson | 7 | 20 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| Bub Carrington | 8 | 19.6 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson Day to day | 7 | 32.7 | 18.3 | 17.8 | 9 | 7.9 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 9 | 30.3 | 21.7 | 24 | 3.3 | 2.7 |
| Dyson Daniels | 9 | 29.7 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 4.7 |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 9 | 29.1 | 12.2 | 14.6 | 8.4 | 2.8 |
| CJ McCollum | 9 | 26.6 | 14.3 | 12 | 3 | 4 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 9 | 26 | 13.9 | 12.4 | 3.7 | 1.9 |
| Luguentz Dort | 9 | 25.3 | 8.9 | 9 | 3 | 1.6 |
| Kingston Flemings | 8 | 20.6 | 8 | 11.4 | 2.9 | 4.6 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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