NBA · Monday, November 9, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · Little Caesars Arena
Washington Wizards vs Detroit Pistons: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. WSH at DET.
Washington Wizards18%Leo win chance
Detroit Pistons82%Leo win chanceBoth have DET winning: Leo by 12.5, DraftKings by 10.5. They are 2 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: WSH 104, DET 116 (total 220). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has DET 82%, but the price is -490, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has DET by 12.5
- Team strength: DET rates 11.5 pts better than WSH on results so far.
- Back to back: DET played last night, 2.0 pts toward WSH.
- Injuries: WSH is missing more, 1.8 pts toward DET.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to DET.
What could still move it. Anthony Davis (WSH, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 1.5 toward DET; if he plays, 1.0 toward WSH.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to DET’s expected margin. Positive helps DET, negative helps WSH.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +11.5 | DET rated +5.7, WSH -6.5 points against an average team |
| Back to back | -2.0 | DET played last night |
| Rest | -0.1 | DET 1 day, WSH 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +1.8 | Value of regulars on the injury report: DET 1.8, WSH 9.9 |
| Leo’s margin | +12.9 | DET by 12.9 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Tristan Vukcevic Out Hip Pinched Nerve
- Anthony Davis Day to day Ankle Sprain · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 33.1 min a game
- Reece Beekman Out Shoulder
- Justin Champagnie Out Foot Not Specified · in Leo’s number, plays 18.5 min a game
- Jamir Watkins Out Knee Surgery
- Jalen Duren Out Hamstring Strain
- Isaiah Joe Out Hip Bruise · in Leo’s number, plays 13.7 min a game
Form
4-6 this season · 107.8 scored, 112.5 allowed a game
- L 75-114 at OKC 11-07
- L 132-139 at ATL 11-06
- L 105-120 vs ATL 11-04
- W 103-94 at ORL 11-02
- W 95-79 vs CHA 10-30
6-3 this season · 111.7 scored, 103.9 allowed a game
- L 116-121 vs LAL 11-08
- L 106-112 vs PHI 11-04
- W 124-91 at CHA 11-02
- W 110-94 at BKN 10-30
- W 97-89 vs CHA 10-28
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trae Young | 10 | 35.2 | 18.4 | 16.2 | 3.4 | 8.9 |
| Anthony Davis Day to day | 8 | 33.1 | 23.4 | 25 | 9.3 | 2.1 |
| Kyshawn George | 10 | 33.1 | 18.5 | 21.2 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
| AJ Dybantsa | 6 | 31.5 | 16 | 15.4 | 5.8 | 2.3 |
| Alex Sarr | 9 | 26 | 10.6 | 12 | 7.1 | 2 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 10 | 25.8 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 0.7 |
| Tre Johnson | 9 | 21.7 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Bub Carrington | 10 | 19.3 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 2 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham | 9 | 34 | 22.9 | 24.6 | 5.4 | 7.7 |
| Duncan Robinson | 9 | 30.6 | 18.2 | 18.6 | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| Ausar Thompson | 8 | 27 | 9.5 | 10 | 8.9 | 4.5 |
| Paul Reed | 9 | 26.6 | 12.2 | 11 | 7.1 | 2.1 |
| John Collins | 9 | 26.2 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 0.6 |
| Daniss Jenkins | 9 | 24.8 | 11.7 | 11.6 | 3.3 | 4.3 |
| Kevin Huerter | 9 | 22 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| Jalen Duren Out | 2 | 19 | 13 | 13 | 7.5 | 2 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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