NBA · Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 6:00 PM ET · Little Caesars Arena
Los Angeles Lakers vs Detroit Pistons: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. LAL at DET.
Los Angeles Lakers26%Leo win chance
Detroit Pistons74%Leo win chanceBoth have DET winning: Leo by 8.5, DraftKings by 7.5. They are 1 pt apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: LAL 108, DET 117 (total 225). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has DET 74%, but the price is -279, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has DET by 8.5
- Injuries: LAL is missing more, 4.9 pts toward DET.
- Team strength: DET rates 1.9 pts better than LAL on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to DET.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to DET’s expected margin. Positive helps DET, negative helps LAL.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +1.9 | DET rated +6.3, LAL +4.2 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | +0.3 | DET 4 days, LAL 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +4.9 | Value of regulars on the injury report: DET 1.8, LAL 24.1 |
| Leo’s margin | +8.9 | DET by 8.9 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Luka Doncic Out Back Soreness · in Leo’s number, plays 35.9 min a game
- Jalen Duren Out Hamstring Strain
- Isaiah Joe Out Hip Bruise · in Leo’s number, plays 13.7 min a game
Form
8-2 this season · 122 scored, 114.3 allowed a game
- W 124-118 vs POR 11-06
- W 116-103 at SAC 11-04
- W 138-117 vs MIA 11-02
- W 131-125 vs TOR 11-01
- L 95-112 at GS 10-30
6-2 this season · 111.1 scored, 101.8 allowed a game
- L 106-112 vs PHI 11-04
- W 124-91 at CHA 11-02
- W 110-94 at BKN 10-30
- W 97-89 vs CHA 10-28
- L 97-111 at NY 10-27
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Reaves | 10 | 36.1 | 23.5 | 22.6 | 3.2 | 4.7 |
| Luka Doncic Out | 9 | 35.9 | 40.1 | 43.4 | 7.8 | 7.7 |
| Walker Kessler | 10 | 31.2 | 14.6 | 14.4 | 10.4 | 1.2 |
| Quentin Grimes | 10 | 25.5 | 7.6 | 5 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
| Ziaire Williams | 7 | 24.6 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 3 | 1.9 |
| Matisse Thybulle | 10 | 24.2 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Jake LaRavia | 9 | 23.6 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 10 | 23.2 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.6 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham | 8 | 33.5 | 24 | 25.6 | 5.6 | 7.6 |
| Duncan Robinson | 8 | 31 | 19 | 18.6 | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| Ausar Thompson | 7 | 27.4 | 9.9 | 10.8 | 8.6 | 4.7 |
| Paul Reed | 8 | 27.4 | 12.8 | 13.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 |
| John Collins | 8 | 25.5 | 9.4 | 6 | 5.9 | 0.5 |
| Daniss Jenkins | 8 | 23.9 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 4.4 |
| Kevin Huerter | 8 | 20.4 | 6.5 | 7 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| Jalen Duren Out | 2 | 19 | 13 | 13 | 7.5 | 2 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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