NBA · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · Little Caesars Arena
Philadelphia 76ers vs Detroit Pistons: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. PHI at DET.
Philadelphia 76ers32%Leo win chance
Detroit Pistons68%Leo win chanceProjected score: PHI 105, DET 112 (total 217). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
Why Leo has DET by 6.5
- Team strength: DET rates 5.3 pts better than PHI on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to DET.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to DET’s expected margin. Positive helps DET, negative helps PHI.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +5.3 | DET rated +7.3, PHI +1.7 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | DET 2 days, PHI 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | -0.4 | Value of regulars on the injury report: DET 1.8, PHI 0 |
| Leo’s margin | +6.6 | DET by 6.6 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Dominick Barlow Out Back Fracture
- Ariel Hukporti Out Achilles Surgery
- Isaiah Joe Out Hip Bruise · in Leo’s number, plays 13.7 min a game
- Jalen Duren Out Hamstring Strain
Form
7-1 this season · 110.9 scored, 105.1 allowed a game
- W 126-107 vs CHI 11-02
- W 109-104 at CHA 10-31
- W 98-93 vs NY 10-30
- W 114-109 at IND 10-28
- L 93-106 vs DET 10-25
6-1 this season · 111.9 scored, 100.3 allowed a game
- W 124-91 at CHA 11-02
- W 110-94 at BKN 10-30
- W 97-89 vs CHA 10-28
- L 97-111 at NY 10-27
- W 106-93 at PHI 10-25
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 8 | 37.5 | 29.1 | 29.4 | 4.1 | 5.3 |
| Jaylen Brown | 7 | 36.1 | 20.6 | 20.8 | 6.9 | 4.3 |
| Joel Embiid | 6 | 33.3 | 18.5 | 19.6 | 9.2 | 4.8 |
| VJ Edgecombe | 7 | 33.3 | 12.7 | 13.8 | 7.1 | 3 |
| LeBron James | 6 | 33 | 16.2 | 16.6 | 7 | 7.3 |
| Dean Wade | 6 | 27 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 2.3 |
| Anfernee Simons | 8 | 24.5 | 11.3 | 14.2 | 2 | 1.3 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 8 | 22.9 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham | 7 | 32.6 | 23.7 | 25.6 | 5.4 | 7.1 |
| Duncan Robinson | 7 | 30.1 | 17.9 | 17.4 | 2 | 2.3 |
| Paul Reed | 7 | 27 | 13.4 | 13.8 | 6.7 | 2.1 |
| Ausar Thompson | 6 | 26.3 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 5 |
| John Collins | 7 | 25.4 | 8.4 | 6 | 6.6 | 0.6 |
| Daniss Jenkins | 7 | 24.3 | 9.9 | 10.2 | 3.4 | 4.4 |
| Kevin Huerter | 7 | 20.4 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 2.1 |
| Jalen Duren Out | 2 | 19 | 13 | 13 | 7.5 | 2 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
Keep reading
All NBA predictions for November 4 →Every game that night: Leo's win chance, spread, picks and leansTonight’s NBA predictions · Every NBA game · Leo’s NBA record · NBA injury tracker · NBA team stats · Free card by email