NBA · Monday, November 9, 2026 · 8:30 PM ET · Toyota Center (Houston)
Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. DEN at HOU.
Denver Nuggets24%Leo win chance
Houston Rockets76%Leo win chanceBoth have HOU winning: Leo by 9.5, DraftKings by 9.5. Same number, so no lean.
Projected score: DEN 108, HOU 117 (total 225). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has HOU 76%, but the price is -344, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has HOU by 9.5
- Team strength: HOU rates 4.5 pts better than DEN on results so far.
- Injuries: DEN is missing more, 3.6 pts toward HOU.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to HOU.
What could still move it. Nikola Jokic (DEN, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 2.0 toward HOU; if he plays, 1.3 toward DEN. Jamal Murray (DEN, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 1.7 toward HOU; if he plays, 1.1 toward DEN. Christian Braun (DEN, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.6 toward HOU; if he plays, 0.4 toward DEN. Aaron Gordon (DEN, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.5 toward HOU; if he plays, 0.3 toward DEN. Cameron Johnson (DEN, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.3 toward HOU; if he plays, 0.2 toward DEN. DeMar DeRozan (DEN, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.3 toward HOU; if he plays, 0.2 toward DEN.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to HOU’s expected margin. Positive helps HOU, negative helps DEN.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +4.5 | HOU rated +7.7, DEN +2.9 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | HOU 2 days, DEN 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +3.6 | Value of regulars on the injury report: HOU 0, DEN 16.2 |
| Leo’s margin | +9.8 | HOU by 9.8 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Cameron Johnson Day to day Lower Body · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 27.6 min a game
- DeMar DeRozan Day to day Back Spasms · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 21.6 min a game
- Christian Braun Day to day Calf Bruise · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 34.3 min a game
- Jamal Murray Day to day Lower Leg Bruise · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 36.5 min a game
- Aaron Gordon Day to day Lower Body · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 29.1 min a game
- Nikola Jokic Day to day Elbow Sprain · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 35.9 min a game
- Julian Strawther Out Knee Sprain
- Oscar Tshiebwe Out Illness
- Clint Capela Out Ankle Sprain
- Steven Adams Out Calf Strain
Form
5-3 this season · 115.3 scored, 113.1 allowed a game
- W 114-102 at IND 11-07
- W 128-109 vs TOR 11-04
- L 110-118 vs POR 11-02
- W 127-120 at PHX 10-30
- W 104-91 at NO 10-28
7-3 this season · 116 scored, 107 allowed a game
- L 99-102 at PHX 11-07
- L 107-117 vs MIN 11-04
- W 109-93 vs BOS 11-02
- W 119-98 vs OKC 10-31
- L 111-116 at DAL 10-30
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray Day to day | 8 | 36.5 | 24.3 | 25.4 | 5.5 | 6.1 |
| Nikola Jokic Day to day | 8 | 35.9 | 22.9 | 23.2 | 10.1 | 9.1 |
| Christian Braun Day to day | 8 | 34.3 | 13.5 | 15.4 | 3.9 | 2.1 |
| Aaron Gordon Day to day | 8 | 29.1 | 12.3 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 |
| Cameron Johnson Day to day | 5 | 27.6 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 |
| DeMar DeRozan Day to day | 7 | 24.7 | 10.7 | 10 | 1.9 | 3 |
| Trevon Brazile | 8 | 21.1 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 0.6 |
| Spencer Jones | 1 | 21 | 13 | 13 | 6 | 0 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 10 | 35 | 17.3 | 18.4 | 6.4 | 2.3 |
| Alperen Sengun | 8 | 34.8 | 21.5 | 20.6 | 8.8 | 7.8 |
| Kevin Durant | 10 | 34.2 | 20.8 | 19.2 | 5.7 | 3 |
| Amen Thompson | 10 | 33.2 | 15.6 | 13 | 6.4 | 3 |
| Fred VanVleet | 8 | 30.1 | 13.4 | 16.4 | 3.4 | 6 |
| Tari Eason | 10 | 24.4 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 6 | 1.3 |
| Marcus Smart | 7 | 22.6 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| Reed Sheppard | 7 | 20.6 | 10 | 9.6 | 2 | 3.1 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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