NBA · Monday, November 2, 2026 · 8:30 PM ET · Toyota Center (Houston)
Boston Celtics vs Houston Rockets: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. BOS at HOU.
Boston Celtics32%Leo win chance
Houston Rockets68%Leo win chanceBoth have HOU winning: Leo by 6.5, DraftKings by 5.5. They are 1 pt apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: BOS 109, HOU 116 (total 225). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
Why Leo has HOU by 6.5
- Team strength: HOU rates 2.7 pts better than BOS on results so far.
- Back to back: BOS played last night, 2.0 pts toward HOU.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to HOU.
What could still move it. Reed Sheppard (HOU, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.4 toward BOS; if he plays, 0.2 toward HOU. Clint Capela (HOU, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.3 toward BOS; if he plays, 0.2 toward HOU.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to HOU’s expected margin. Positive helps HOU, negative helps BOS.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +2.7 | HOU rated +7.9, BOS +5.1 points against an average team |
| Back to back | +2.0 | BOS played last night |
| Rest | +0.1 | HOU 2 days, BOS 1 day (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +0.1 | Value of regulars on the injury report: HOU 2, BOS 2.3 |
| Leo’s margin | +6.7 | HOU by 6.7 expected |
Injury report
As of Leo’s read. “Counted” means Leo lowered the team’s number for that player: fully when out, 40% when day to day.
- Mitchell Robinson Out Rest Not Specified · counted, 20 min a game
- Devin Carter Out Illness
- Clint Capela Day to day Ankle Sprain · counted, 12.1 min a game
- Reed Sheppard Day to day Back · counted, 15.5 min a game
- Steven Adams Out Calf Strain
Form
5-1 this season · 118.7 scored, 109.2 allowed a game
- W 108-97 at ORL 11-01
- W 125-111 vs CHI 10-30
- W 125-124 vs BKN 10-27
- W 134-99 vs CHI 10-26
- W 107-103 vs NY 10-23
6-1 this season · 120.7 scored, 108.3 allowed a game
- W 119-98 vs OKC 10-31
- L 111-116 at DAL 10-30
- W 132-100 at MIL 10-28
- W 120-110 vs ATL 10-26
- W 121-114 at ATL 10-24
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | 5 | 36 | 27.6 | 31.4 | 6.4 | 7.8 |
| Paul George | 5 | 30.6 | 21.4 | 17.2 | 6 | 4.4 |
| Derrick White | 5 | 29.2 | 11.8 | 10.8 | 3.6 | 5.8 |
| Payton Pritchard | 5 | 27.8 | 16.6 | 14.6 | 2.2 | 3.6 |
| Sam Hauser | 5 | 20.8 | 9 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 |
| Mitchell Robinson Out | 5 | 20 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 0.6 |
| Neemias Queta | 5 | 19.6 | 9 | 10 | 4.8 | 1.2 |
| Baylor Scheierman | 5 | 18.2 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 7 | 34.3 | 19 | 19.2 | 5.9 | 2.7 |
| Alperen Sengun | 5 | 33.8 | 22.8 | 22.8 | 9 | 7.4 |
| Kevin Durant | 7 | 33.7 | 22 | 20.8 | 5.6 | 3.1 |
| Amen Thompson | 7 | 33.7 | 16.3 | 15.6 | 6.6 | 3.7 |
| Fred VanVleet | 5 | 30.6 | 13 | 13 | 4 | 6.4 |
| Marcus Smart | 4 | 25 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 3 | 2.5 |
| Tari Eason | 7 | 24.3 | 10 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Reed Sheppard Day to day | 4 | 23.3 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 2.8 | 4.8 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
Keep reading
All NBA predictions for November 2 →Every game that night: Leo's win chance, spread, picks and leansTonight’s NBA predictions · Every NBA game · Leo’s NBA record · NBA injury tracker · NBA team stats · Free card by email