NBA · Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 7:30 PM ET · State Farm Arena
Brooklyn Nets vs Atlanta Hawks: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. BKN at ATL.
Brooklyn Nets36%Leo win chance
Atlanta Hawks64%Leo win chanceBoth have ATL winning: Leo by 5.5, DraftKings by 7.5. They are 2 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: BKN 111, ATL 116 (total 227). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has ATL 64%, but the price is -324, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has ATL by 5.5
- Team strength: ATL rates 7.7 pts better than BKN on results so far.
- Injuries: ATL is missing more, 2.1 pts toward BKN.
- Back to back: ATL played last night, 2.0 pts toward BKN.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to ATL.
What could still move it. Day'Ron Sharpe (BKN, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.4 toward ATL; if he plays, 0.2 toward BKN.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to ATL’s expected margin. Positive helps ATL, negative helps BKN.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +7.7 | ATL rated +2, BKN -6.2 points against an average team |
| Back to back | -2.0 | ATL played last night |
| Rest | -0.3 | ATL 1 day, BKN 3 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | -2.1 | Value of regulars on the injury report: ATL 10.7, BKN 1.2 |
| Leo’s margin | +5.1 | ATL by 5.1 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Noah Clowney Day to day Illness · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 21.1 min a game
- Day'Ron Sharpe Day to day Undisclosed · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 23.1 min a game
- Egor Demin Out Leg Bruise · in Leo’s number, plays 21.8 min a game
- Tyler Bilodeau Out Shoulder Sprain
- Keshon Gilbert Out Knee Inflammation
- Asa Newell Out Toe
- Jock Landale Out Hip · in Leo’s number, plays 13.4 min a game
- Jalen Johnson Out Ankle · in Leo’s number, plays 32.7 min a game
- Mouhamed Gueye Out Foot Fracture
- Henri Veesaar Out Knee
Form
2-6 this season · 106.6 scored, 112.9 allowed a game
- W 114-104 vs CHA 11-04
- L 90-103 at NY 11-02
- W 98-90 at IND 11-01
- L 94-110 vs DET 10-30
- L 124-125 at BOS 10-27
6-4 this season · 118.1 scored, 114.9 allowed a game
- W 139-132 vs WSH 11-06
- W 120-105 at WSH 11-04
- W 108-104 at IND 11-02
- L 99-121 at NO 10-31
- W 114-111 vs CLE 10-29
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Randle | 8 | 33.8 | 21 | 20.4 | 7.1 | 4.8 |
| Michael Porter Jr. | 8 | 33.1 | 21.4 | 21.4 | 7.4 | 1.3 |
| Day'Ron Sharpe Day to day | 8 | 23.1 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 2.6 |
| Mikel Brown Jr. | 6 | 23 | 12 | 13.2 | 2.3 | 4 |
| Keon Ellis | 8 | 22.5 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Nolan Traore | 8 | 22.1 | 12 | 14.6 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| Egor Demin Out | 4 | 21.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| Noah Clowney Day to day | 8 | 21.1 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 0.9 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson Out | 7 | 32.7 | 18.3 | 17.8 | 9 | 7.9 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 10 | 30.6 | 22.3 | 25 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| Dyson Daniels | 10 | 30.2 | 9.9 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 5.4 |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 10 | 29.5 | 13.2 | 16.8 | 8.6 | 2.6 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 10 | 26.3 | 14.4 | 14.2 | 3.7 | 2 |
| CJ McCollum | 10 | 26.2 | 13.3 | 10.2 | 3 | 4 |
| Luguentz Dort | 10 | 26 | 10.5 | 12.4 | 3.4 | 1.8 |
| Kingston Flemings | 9 | 21.1 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 2.7 | 4.8 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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