NBA · Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · 10:00 PM ET · Golden 1 Center
Orlando Magic vs Sacramento Kings: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. ORL at SAC.
Orlando Magic60%Leo win chance
Sacramento Kings40%Leo win chanceBoth have ORL winning: Leo by 4, DraftKings by 6.5. They are 2.5 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: ORL 116, SAC 112 (total 228). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has ORL 60%, but the price is -237, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has ORL by 4
- Team strength: ORL rates 4.6 pts better than SAC on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to SAC.
- Injuries: SAC is missing more, 0.5 pts toward ORL.
What could still move it. Domantas Sabonis (SAC, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 1.4 toward ORL; if he plays, 0.9 toward SAC. Tristan da Silva (ORL, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.5 toward SAC; if he plays, 0.3 toward ORL.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to SAC’s expected margin. Positive helps SAC, negative helps ORL.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | -4.6 | SAC rated -8.5, ORL -3.6 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | -0.1 | SAC 2 days, ORL 3 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | -0.5 | Value of regulars on the injury report: SAC 4.1, ORL 1.7 |
| Leo’s margin | -3.6 | ORL by 3.6 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Tristan da Silva Day to day Calf Strain · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 30.4 min a game
- Jalen Suggs Out Knee · in Leo’s number, plays 33.3 min a game
- Jonathan Isaac Out Knee Not Specified
- Paolo Banchero Out Ankle Sprain
- Noah Penda Out Hamstring Strain
- Izaiyah Nelson Out Ankle Surgery
- Maxime Raynaud Out Knee Dislocated
- Keegan Murray Day to day Wrist Soreness · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 25.7 min a game
- Domantas Sabonis Day to day Knee Soreness · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 35.6 min a game
- Ben Simmons Out Achilles Surgery
Form
2-7 this season · 107 scored, 116.2 allowed a game
- L 119-126 at GS 11-07
- L 104-117 at PHX 11-05
- L 94-103 vs WSH 11-02
- L 97-108 vs BOS 11-01
- W 121-114 at TOR 10-30
1-9 this season · 109.1 scored, 122.4 allowed a game
- L 108-114 vs MIA 11-08
- L 109-124 vs SA 11-06
- L 103-116 vs LAL 11-04
- W 115-100 at DAL 11-02
- L 105-136 at MEM 10-31
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Wagner | 9 | 36.4 | 20.8 | 21.8 | 6.3 | 8.8 |
| Desmond Bane | 8 | 34.5 | 17.5 | 19 | 3.9 | 2.3 |
| Paolo Banchero Out | 2 | 33.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 9 | 33.4 | 14.8 | 15.8 | 9.6 | 1 |
| Jalen Suggs Out | 3 | 33.3 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 5.7 |
| Tristan da Silva Day to day | 9 | 30.4 | 15.1 | 15.6 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| Anthony Black | 6 | 30.2 | 15.7 | 15.2 | 5.7 | 5.2 |
| Jase Richardson | 9 | 22.6 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 2.7 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 10 | 37 | 25.9 | 27.8 | 3.8 | 7.4 |
| Domantas Sabonis Day to day | 9 | 35.6 | 15.3 | 12.4 | 14.6 | 6 |
| Zach LaVine | 10 | 32.7 | 21.4 | 16.8 | 3.3 | 2.6 |
| De'Andre Hunter | 9 | 31.2 | 13.1 | 15.4 | 4.6 | 1.2 |
| Precious Achiuwa | 10 | 27.6 | 10.4 | 7 | 6.7 | 1.2 |
| Keegan Murray Day to day | 3 | 25.7 | 8 | 8 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Leaky Black | 5 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 3.6 | 1.8 |
| Emanuel Sharp | 10 | 18 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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