NBA · Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 9:00 PM ET · Golden 1 Center
Miami Heat vs Sacramento Kings: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. MIA at SAC.
Miami Heat63%Leo win chance
Sacramento Kings38%Leo win chanceProjected score: MIA 122, SAC 117 (total 239). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has MIA 63%, but the price is -446, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has MIA by 4.5
- Team strength: MIA rates 6.0 pts better than SAC on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to SAC.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to SAC’s expected margin. Positive helps SAC, negative helps MIA.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | -6.0 | SAC rated -8.7, MIA -2.3 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | -0.1 | SAC 2 days, MIA 3 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | 0.0 | Value of regulars on the injury report: SAC 0, MIA 0 |
| Leo’s margin | -4.4 | MIA by 4.4 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
Nobody listed.
- Keegan Murray Out Ankle
- Maxime Raynaud Out Knee Dislocated
- Ben Simmons Out Achilles Surgery
Form
3-6 this season · 116 scored, 122.6 allowed a game
- L 100-120 at GS 11-05
- W 117-116 at LAC 11-04
- L 117-138 at LAL 11-02
- W 145-125 vs IND 10-30
- W 129-117 at ATL 10-28
1-8 this season · 109.2 scored, 123.3 allowed a game
- L 109-124 vs SA 11-06
- L 103-116 vs LAL 11-04
- W 115-100 at DAL 11-02
- L 105-136 at MEM 10-31
- L 120-132 at NO 10-29
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell | 9 | 35 | 16.1 | 14.6 | 1.6 | 8.2 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 9 | 32.8 | 27.3 | 26.4 | 12.7 | 5.6 |
| Bam Adebayo | 9 | 32.7 | 18.6 | 24 | 8.4 | 3.1 |
| Pelle Larsson | 9 | 30.2 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 3.1 | 3.8 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 9 | 25.8 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| Klay Thompson | 9 | 23.3 | 13.8 | 17.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Bobby Portis | 9 | 20.8 | 7.3 | 5 | 6.9 | 1.9 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 9 | 15.6 | 5.1 | 5 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 9 | 36.8 | 25.2 | 28.2 | 3.7 | 7.1 |
| Domantas Sabonis | 9 | 35.6 | 15.3 | 12.4 | 14.6 | 6 |
| Zach LaVine | 9 | 33.6 | 22.1 | 18 | 3.2 | 2.7 |
| De'Andre Hunter | 8 | 31.3 | 13 | 17.4 | 4.8 | 1.3 |
| Keegan Murray Out | 2 | 27 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 0.5 |
| Precious Achiuwa | 9 | 26.7 | 10.8 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 1.1 |
| Leaky Black | 4 | 23.8 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 2 |
| Emanuel Sharp | 9 | 18.7 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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