NBA · Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET · Fiserv Forum
Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. BOS at MIL.
Boston Celtics78%Leo win chance
Milwaukee Bucks22%Leo win chanceBoth have BOS winning: Leo by 11, DraftKings by 12.5. They are 1.5 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: BOS 117, MIL 106 (total 223). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has BOS 78%, but the price is -750, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has BOS by 11
- Team strength: BOS rates 12.6 pts better than MIL on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to MIL.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to MIL’s expected margin. Positive helps MIL, negative helps BOS.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | -12.6 | MIL rated -7.8, BOS +5.5 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | MIL 2 days, BOS 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +0.2 | Value of regulars on the injury report: MIL 0, BOS 0.7 |
| Leo’s margin | -10.7 | BOS by 10.7 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Mitchell Robinson Day to day Illness · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 18.8 min a game
- Gary Trent Jr. Day to day Illness
Form
7-2 this season · 114.8 scored, 105.1 allowed a game
- W 119-80 at CHA 11-06
- W 109-102 vs MIL 11-04
- L 93-109 at HOU 11-02
- W 108-97 at ORL 11-01
- W 125-111 vs CHI 10-30
1-8 this season · 109.7 scored, 122.1 allowed a game
- L 107-121 vs TOR 11-06
- L 102-109 at BOS 11-04
- L 100-112 at MIN 11-02
- L 111-136 vs CLE 10-31
- L 100-132 vs HOU 10-28
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | 8 | 34.4 | 27.9 | 30.2 | 6.3 | 8 |
| Paul George | 8 | 30.4 | 19.6 | 17.6 | 5.5 | 4.5 |
| Derrick White | 9 | 30.1 | 13.3 | 14 | 3.3 | 5.1 |
| Payton Pritchard | 9 | 26.3 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 3.1 | 3.8 |
| Neemias Queta | 9 | 21.7 | 9.1 | 10 | 5.9 | 1.3 |
| Sam Hauser | 9 | 20.8 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| Baylor Scheierman | 9 | 20.2 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 |
| Mitchell Robinson Day to day | 8 | 18.8 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 0.5 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro | 9 | 31.1 | 22.3 | 21.4 | 5 | 4.6 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 9 | 28.3 | 16.4 | 15.6 | 6.2 | 2.8 |
| Myles Turner | 9 | 27.4 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 |
| Kyle Kuzma | 9 | 27 | 9.9 | 7.8 | 6 | 3 |
| Ryan Rollins | 9 | 23.7 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 4.1 |
| AJ Green | 9 | 20.3 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 2 | 1.6 |
| Brayden Burries | 9 | 20.1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Kasparas Jakucionis | 9 | 19.9 | 7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 3.8 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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