NBA · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 7:30 PM ET · TD Garden
Milwaukee Bucks vs Boston Celtics: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. MIL at BOS.
Milwaukee Bucks20%Leo win chance
Boston Celtics80%Leo win chanceBoth have BOS winning: Leo by 11.5, DraftKings by 11.5. Same number, so no lean.
Projected score: MIL 107, BOS 118 (total 225). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has BOS 80%, but the price is -567, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has BOS by 11.5
- Team strength: BOS rates 11.5 pts better than MIL on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to BOS.
- Injuries: BOS is missing more, 1.6 pts toward MIL.
What could still move it. Jayson Tatum (BOS, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 1.7 toward MIL; if he plays, 1.2 toward BOS. Payton Pritchard (BOS, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.6 toward MIL; if he plays, 0.4 toward BOS.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to BOS’s expected margin. Positive helps BOS, negative helps MIL.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +11.5 | BOS rated +4.3, MIL -7.8 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | BOS 2 days, MIL 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | -1.6 | Value of regulars on the injury report: BOS 7.1, MIL 0 |
| Leo’s margin | +11.7 | BOS by 11.7 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
Nobody listed.
- Payton Pritchard Day to day Shoulder · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 28 min a game
- Jayson Tatum Day to day Rest · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 35.1 min a game
- Devin Carter Out Illness
Form
1-6 this season · 111.1 scored, 124.1 allowed a game
- L 100-112 at MIN 11-02
- L 111-136 vs CLE 10-31
- L 100-132 vs HOU 10-28
- W 110-102 vs IND 10-26
- L 116-127 at PHI 10-24
5-2 this season · 115 scored, 109.1 allowed a game
- L 93-109 at HOU 11-02
- W 108-97 at ORL 11-01
- W 125-111 vs CHI 10-30
- W 125-124 vs BKN 10-27
- W 134-99 vs CHI 10-26
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro | 7 | 30.3 | 21.9 | 19 | 5 | 4 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 7 | 28 | 16.6 | 15 | 7.3 | 2.9 |
| Myles Turner | 7 | 26.7 | 8 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.1 |
| Kyle Kuzma | 7 | 26.3 | 10 | 10.2 | 6.4 | 2.9 |
| Ryan Rollins | 7 | 25 | 11 | 11.4 | 4.1 | 4.4 |
| Kasparas Jakucionis | 7 | 22.4 | 8.1 | 7 | 3.1 | 4.4 |
| AJ Green | 7 | 19.9 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Kel'el Ware | 7 | 19.3 | 11.4 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 0.7 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum Day to day | 7 | 35.1 | 27 | 28 | 6 | 7.9 |
| Paul George | 6 | 31 | 20.7 | 17.2 | 6 | 5 |
| Derrick White | 7 | 30 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 3.1 | 4.9 |
| Payton Pritchard Day to day | 7 | 28 | 13.4 | 14.6 | 3 | 3.4 |
| Neemias Queta | 7 | 21.6 | 9.9 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 1.1 |
| Sam Hauser | 7 | 20 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 3 | 1 |
| Baylor Scheierman | 7 | 19.7 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| Mitchell Robinson | 6 | 19.2 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 0.5 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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