NBA · Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · 7:30 PM ET · Madison Square Garden
Milwaukee Bucks vs New York Knicks: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. MIL at NY.
Milwaukee Bucks15%Leo win chance
New York Knicks85%Leo win chanceBoth have NY winning: Leo by 14.5, DraftKings by 15.5. They are 1 pt apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: MIL 103, NY 117 (total 220). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has NY 85%, but the price is -1040, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has NY by 14.5
- Team strength: NY rates 11.4 pts better than MIL on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to NY.
- Injuries: MIL is missing more, 0.9 pts toward NY.
What could still move it. Josh Hart (NY, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.3 toward MIL; if he plays, 0.2 toward NY. Tyler Herro (MIL, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 1.3 toward NY; if he plays, 0.8 toward MIL. Kel'el Ware (MIL, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.4 toward NY; if he plays, 0.2 toward MIL.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to NY’s expected margin. Positive helps NY, negative helps MIL.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +11.4 | NY rated +3.7, MIL -8.4 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | +0.1 | NY 3 days, MIL 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +0.9 | Value of regulars on the injury report: NY 0.9, MIL 4.9 |
| Leo’s margin | +14.2 | NY by 14.2 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Kel'el Ware Day to day Ankle Sprain · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 17.3 min a game
- Tyler Herro Day to day Knee Bruise · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 30.7 min a game
- Josh Hart Day to day Ankle · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 31.7 min a game
Form
1-9 this season · 108.4 scored, 121.6 allowed a game
- L 97-117 vs BOS 11-08
- L 107-121 vs TOR 11-06
- L 102-109 at BOS 11-04
- L 100-112 at MIN 11-02
- L 111-136 vs CLE 10-31
5-4 this season · 109.9 scored, 104.2 allowed a game
- W 109-97 at CLE 11-07
- W 135-105 vs CHI 11-04
- W 103-90 vs BKN 11-02
- L 93-98 at PHI 10-30
- W 133-127 at CHI 10-28
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro Day to day | 10 | 30.7 | 21.4 | 19.4 | 4.6 | 4.3 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 10 | 27.8 | 15.2 | 12.6 | 5.8 | 2.7 |
| Kyle Kuzma | 10 | 27.4 | 11.6 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 |
| Myles Turner | 10 | 27.1 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.8 |
| Ryan Rollins | 10 | 23.3 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 4.3 |
| Brayden Burries | 10 | 21 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 |
| AJ Green | 10 | 20.1 | 7.5 | 7 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Kasparas Jakucionis | 10 | 18.6 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 3.4 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | 9 | 33.9 | 26.2 | 29 | 3 | 5.6 |
| OG Anunoby | 9 | 33.1 | 16.4 | 16.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 |
| Josh Hart Day to day | 7 | 31.7 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.9 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 9 | 31.6 | 20.9 | 19.6 | 13.6 | 3.1 |
| Mikal Bridges | 9 | 26 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 |
| Landry Shamet | 9 | 25.3 | 9.3 | 10.4 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Miles McBride | 9 | 17.3 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Andre Drummond | 9 | 13.1 | 5 | 3.4 | 7.8 | 1 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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