NBA · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 7:30 PM ET · Madison Square Garden
Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. CHI at NY.
Chicago Bulls19%Leo win chance
New York Knicks81%Leo win chanceBoth have NY winning: Leo by 12.5, DraftKings by 12.5. Same number, so no lean.
Projected score: CHI 108, NY 121 (total 229). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has NY 81%, but the price is -597, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has NY by 12.5
- Team strength: NY rates 10.0 pts better than CHI on results so far.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to NY.
What could still move it. Josh Hart (NY, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.3 toward CHI; if he plays, 0.2 toward NY. Jalen Smith (CHI, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.8 toward NY; if he plays, 0.5 toward CHI.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to NY’s expected margin. Positive helps NY, negative helps CHI.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | +10.0 | NY rated +2.2, CHI -8.5 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | NY 2 days, CHI 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +0.3 | Value of regulars on the injury report: NY 0.9, CHI 2.4 |
| Leo’s margin | +12.1 | NY by 12.1 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Nic Claxton Out Hamstring
- Jalen Smith Day to day Finger · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 24.6 min a game
- Josh Hart Day to day Ankle · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 31.7 min a game
Form
1-6 this season · 112.6 scored, 128.9 allowed a game
- L 107-126 at PHI 11-02
- L 111-125 at BOS 10-30
- L 127-133 vs NY 10-28
- L 99-134 at BOS 10-26
- L 120-124 vs WSH 10-24
3-4 this season · 106.4 scored, 105.1 allowed a game
- W 103-90 vs BKN 11-02
- L 93-98 at PHI 10-30
- W 133-127 at CHI 10-28
- W 111-97 vs DET 10-27
- L 102-111 vs ORL 10-25
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Wilson | 7 | 34 | 21.6 | 22.8 | 6.7 | 2.7 |
| Norman Powell | 7 | 29.9 | 20.3 | 20.4 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| Josh Giddey | 7 | 27.3 | 9.1 | 11.2 | 5.1 | 7.9 |
| Matas Buzelis | 7 | 25 | 13 | 13.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 |
| Jalen Smith Day to day | 7 | 24.6 | 12.1 | 11.2 | 8.6 | 2 |
| Isaac Okoro | 7 | 18.3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Tre Jones | 7 | 18.1 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 2.9 | 3 |
| Leonard Miller | 7 | 17.4 | 7.6 | 6 | 3.9 | 0.7 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | 7 | 34.7 | 24.6 | 26.4 | 2.7 | 5.3 |
| OG Anunoby | 7 | 34.3 | 16.4 | 17 | 5.6 | 2.6 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 7 | 32.1 | 20.3 | 20.2 | 13.9 | 3.4 |
| Josh Hart Day to day | 7 | 31.7 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.9 |
| Mikal Bridges | 7 | 25.9 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| Landry Shamet | 7 | 24.9 | 9.7 | 11 | 1.4 | 2 |
| Miles McBride | 7 | 18.4 | 6.9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Andre Drummond | 7 | 13.1 | 5.6 | 5 | 7.6 | 1.3 |
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Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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