MLB matchup analysis
Rangers vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, September 11, 2026 at Chase Field · 9:40 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Rangers vs Diamondbacks
The case for Texas Rangers
The case for Arizona Diamondbacks
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Rangers 1, Diamondbacks 9
How the analysis held up
Arizona Diamondbacks won. Leo's model favored the other side.
MacKenzie Gore (Texas Rangers) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Merrill Kelly actually pitched better tonight: 4.1 IP, 1 ER (2.08 ERA) against 4.0 IP, 4 ER (9.00 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Texas Rangers bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 5 earned runs over 4.0 innings (11.25 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 4.2 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Texas Rangers scored 1, 2.5 fewer than the 3.5 pregame projection.
Arizona Diamondbacks scored 9, 6.1 more than the 2.9 pregame projection.
Likely driver: MacKenzie Gore, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 9.00 ERA, and the Texas Rangers bullpen allowed 5 earned runs over 4.0 relief innings (11.25 ERA), which is exactly the risk flagged pregame.
Game information
| Matchup | Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, September 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Chase Field |
| Starting pitchers | MacKenzie Gore vs Merrill Kelly |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 98°F, 1% precipitation chance, 8 mph wind from W. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Rangers | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 60 | 50 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.51 | 5.06 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.34 | 1.47 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.7 | 6.0 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 15.6% | 5.5% |
| K% (higher is better) | 24.9% | 15.4% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.2% | 10.0% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.6 | 3.9 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.9% | 47.7% |
| Fly-ball rate | 55.1% | 52.3% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives MacKenzie Gore a 10-point edge over Merrill Kelly, driven mainly by K/9 (9.7 vs 6.0) and K-BB% (15.6% vs 5.5%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Rangers are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 5.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; Diamondbacks are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 3.3 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Diamondbacks carry the better run differential per game (+0.05 against -0.33).
| Metric | Rangers | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 3-7 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.752 | 0.633 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.329 | 0.282 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.2 | 3.3 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 23.2% | 20.7% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Rangers | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.722 (+0.006 vs szn) | 0.710 |
| Runs per game | 4.14 (+0.014 vs szn) | 4.04 (-0.402 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.319 | 0.314 |
| K% (lower is better) | 22.6% | 19.3% |
Over the last 30 days the Rangers have been the better offense, 0.319 wOBA to 0.314.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Rangers | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 72-75 | 78-69 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.33 | +0.05 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.13 | 4.44 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.46 | 4.39 |
| Season OPS | 0.717 | 0.707 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.8% | 19.3% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.697 | 0.773 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Rangers and Diamondbacks are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Rangers | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.8/10, Tired | 8.7/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 4.6/10, Average | 6.4/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 7.0/10, Tired | 8.0/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 28.0 | 31.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 8 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.82 | 2.59 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.32 | 1.02 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.0 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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