MLB matchup analysis
Rockies vs Tigers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, September 11, 2026 at Comerica Park · 6:40 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Rockies vs Tigers
The case for Detroit Tigers
The case for Colorado Rockies
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Rockies 2, Tigers 6
How the analysis held up
Detroit Tigers won, the side Leo's model favored.
Mason Adams (No clear pitching-plan edge) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Framber Valdez actually pitched better tonight: 6.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 1 ER (1.80 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Colorado Rockies bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 5 earned runs allowed over 3.0 relief innings (15.00 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
Detroit Tigers scored 6, 2.8 more than the 3.2 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, September 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Comerica Park |
| Starting pitchers | Mason Adams vs Framber Valdez |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 67°F, 0% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from E. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Rockies | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅔ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 61 | 61 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.38 | 4.01 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.45 | 1.36 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 10.6 | 6.7 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 16.9% | 8.6% |
| K% (higher is better) | 28.6% | 17.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 11.7% | 8.4% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.3 | 3.3 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.4% | 61.7% |
| Fly-ball rate | 53.6% | 38.3% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Framber Valdez a 0-point edge over Mason Adams, driven mainly by HR/9 (0.82 vs 2.41) and expected innings (5.6 vs 4.7).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Rockies are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 3.9 runs per game over the last 15 days; Tigers are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 3.8 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Tigers carry the better run differential per game (+0.40 against -1.07).
| Metric | Rockies | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 3-7 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 2-8 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.700 | 0.629 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.309 | 0.280 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 25.0% | 27.8% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Rockies | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.705 (-0.031 vs szn) | 0.632 (-0.078 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.33 (-0.347 vs szn) | 3.64 (-0.759 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.313 (-0.011 vs szn) | 0.282 (-0.032 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 24.4% (+1.4% vs szn) | 24.7% (+1.7% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Rockies have been the better offense, 0.313 wOBA to 0.282. They are cooling off against their own season line (-0.011 wOBA). Tigers are striking out at 24.7% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Rockies | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 55-91 | 67-79 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -1.07 | +0.40 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.68 | 4.40 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 5.76 | 4.00 |
| Season OPS | 0.737 | 0.709 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 23.0% | 23.0% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.702 | 0.717 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Rockies and Tigers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Rockies | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.3/10, Normal | 6.8/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 1.8/10, Struggling | 7.7/10, Dominant |
| Combined risk | 6.9/10, Tired | 5.5/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 20.7 | 26.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 7 |
| 7-day ERA | 9.15 | 1.04 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.79 | 0.77 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every Leo pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. Leo provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.