Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Sunday, September 27, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
15
OFFICIAL PICKS
13
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
2
WATCHLIST
1
PASSES
9
Updated Sep 27, 9:11 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Members get official picks first, value watch setups second, and clear pass reasons for the rest of the card.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 9.9/10
- Model probability
- 73.7%
- Market probability
- 65.0%
- Model vs market
- +8.7%
- Current price
- -200
- Pitcher edge
- Milwaukee Brewers by 19 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Milwaukee Brewers is 7.7/10 and St. Louis Cardinals is 7.8/10.
Why Leo made this decisionMilwaukee Brewers grades as a strong value setup with 73.7% model win probability against a 65.0% market number and a 9.9/10 Lab Rating. Milwaukee Brewers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 19 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Milwaukee Brewers is 6.8/10 and St. Louis Cardinals is 7.1/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.7 points from 97.3% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.7%. It stayed a value watch under the stricter official-pick review.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 9.0/10
- Model probability
- 73.3%
- Market probability
- 68.3%
- Model vs market
- +5.1%
- Current price
- -230
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Dodgers by 26 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Los Angeles Dodgers is 7.5/10 and San Francisco Giants is 7.6/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Los Angeles Dodgers is using a bullpen game. Jack Dreyer is expected to cover about 1.3 innings, leaving roughly 7.7 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.3/10 risk with 7.4/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. San Francisco Giants is using a bullpen game. Carson Seymour is expected to cover about 1.0 innings, leaving roughly 8.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.3/10 risk with 5.6/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Los Angeles Dodgers. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 7.4/10 for Los Angeles Dodgers versus 5.6/10 for San Francisco Giants.
Los Angeles Dodgers grades as a strong value setup with 73.3% model win probability against a 68.3% market number and a 9.0/10 Lab Rating. Los Angeles Dodgers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 26 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Los Angeles Dodgers is 6.3/10 and San Francisco Giants is 7.3/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.2 points from 96.5% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.3%. It stayed a value watch under the stricter official-pick review.
Los Angeles Dodgers is using a bullpen game. Jack Dreyer is expected to cover about 1.3 innings, leaving roughly 7.7 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.3/10 risk with 7.4/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. San Francisco Giants is using a bullpen game. Carson Seymour is expected to cover about 1.0 innings, leaving roughly 8.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.3/10 risk with 5.6/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Los Angeles Dodgers. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 7.4/10 for Los Angeles Dodgers versus 5.6/10 for San Francisco Giants.
Los Angeles Dodgers grades as a strong value setup with 73.3% model win probability against a 68.3% market number and a 9.0/10 Lab Rating. Los Angeles Dodgers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 26 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Los Angeles Dodgers is 6.3/10 and San Francisco Giants is 7.3/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.2 points from 96.5% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.3%. It stayed a value watch under the stricter official-pick review.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals
Official markets
Moneyline: Cleveland Guardians -104
Pitcher Ks: Parker Messick Over 3.5 +100
- Leo side
- Cleveland Guardians Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.4/10
- Model probability
- 72.7%
- Market probability
- 50.0%
- Model vs market
- +22.7%
- Current price
- -104
- Pitcher edge
- Cleveland Guardians by 17 points
- Bullpen read
- Cleveland Guardians carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.5/10 versus 7.5/10, which adds late-game risk. Cleveland Guardians has used 25.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionCleveland Guardians is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 72.7% chance to win, compared with the market's 50.0% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 8.4/10 Lab Rating. Cleveland Guardians has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 17 rating points. Both bullpens carry high risk. Cleveland Guardians is 9.0/10 and Kansas City Royals is 9.0/10, so the late innings carry meaningful volatility on both sides. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.6 points from 95.3% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.7%. At -104, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox
Official markets
Moneyline: Chicago Cubs -113
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.1/10
- Model probability
- 72.5%
- Market probability
- 51.9%
- Model vs market
- +20.6%
- Current price
- -113
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago Cubs by 22 points
- Bullpen read
- Chicago Cubs has the fresher bullpen, 5.3/10 versus 7.6/10. Boston Red Sox has used 25.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionChicago Cubs is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 72.5% chance to win, compared with the market's 51.9% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 8.1/10 Lab Rating. Chicago Cubs has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 22 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Chicago Cubs is 5.2/10 and Boston Red Sox is 6.5/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.3 points from 94.8% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.5%. At -113, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
Official markets
Moneyline: Seattle Mariners -155
Pitcher Ks: Yusei Kikuchi Under 5.5 -144
- Leo side
- Seattle Mariners Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.9/10
- Model probability
- 72.5%
- Market probability
- 59.8%
- Model vs market
- +12.7%
- Current price
- -155
- Pitcher edge
- Seattle Mariners by 22 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Seattle Mariners is 7.3/10 and Los Angeles Angels is 6.3/10.
Why Leo made this decisionSeattle Mariners is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 72.5% chance to win, compared with the market's 59.8% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 7.9/10 Lab Rating. Seattle Mariners has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 22 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Seattle Mariners is 7.0/10 and Los Angeles Angels is 8.1/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.4 points from 94.9% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.5%. At -155, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Houston Astros @ Athletics
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Peter Lambert Over 2.5 +122
- Leo side
- Houston Astros Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.5/10
- Model probability
- 73.8%
- Market probability
- 63.5%
- Model vs market
- +10.2%
- Current price
- -185
- Pitcher edge
- Houston Astros by 29 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Houston Astros is 7.7/10 and Athletics is 7.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Athletics is using a bullpen game. Seth Johnson is expected to cover about 1.7 innings, leaving roughly 7.3 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 8.5/10 risk with 2.0/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Houston Astros. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.7/10 for Houston Astros versus 2.0/10 for Athletics.
Houston Astros is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 73.8% win probability, the market is at 63.5%, and the setup carries a 6.5/10 Lab Rating. Houston Astros has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 29 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Houston Astros is 7.4/10 and Athletics is 8.5/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.7 points from 97.4% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.8%.
Athletics is using a bullpen game. Seth Johnson is expected to cover about 1.7 innings, leaving roughly 7.3 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 8.5/10 risk with 2.0/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Houston Astros. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.7/10 for Houston Astros versus 2.0/10 for Athletics.
Houston Astros is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 73.8% win probability, the market is at 63.5%, and the setup carries a 6.5/10 Lab Rating. Houston Astros has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 29 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Houston Astros is 7.4/10 and Athletics is 8.5/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.7 points from 97.4% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.8%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Michael Soroka Over 4.5 +106
- Leo side
- Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.3/10
- Model probability
- 66.5%
- Market probability
- 58.1%
- Model vs market
- +8.4%
- Current price
- -147
- Pitcher edge
- Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- Arizona Diamondbacks has the fresher bullpen, 6.9/10 versus 9.7/10. San Diego Padres has used 26.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 8 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Sean Manaea Over 4.5 +125
- Leo side
- New York Mets Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.1/10
- Model probability
- 72.5%
- Market probability
- 77.6%
- Model vs market
- -5.1%
- Current price
- -400
- Pitcher edge
- New York Mets by 32 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. New York Mets is 7.9/10 and Washington Nationals is 8.5/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies
- Leo side
- Philadelphia Phillies Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.6/10
- Model probability
- 51.9%
- Market probability
- 66.5%
- Model vs market
- -14.7%
- Current price
- -200
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Philadelphia Phillies is 7.7/10 and Tampa Bay Rays is 8.7/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers
- Leo side
- Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.8/10
- Model probability
- 58.6%
- Market probability
- 48.5%
- Model vs market
- +10.1%
- Current price
- +104
- Pitcher edge
- Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- Pittsburgh Pirates carries the heavier bullpen workload, 10.0/10 versus 6.0/10, which adds late-game risk. Pittsburgh Pirates has used 36.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Detroit Tigers is using a bullpen game. River Ryan is expected to cover about 2.2 innings, leaving roughly 6.8 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.3/10 risk with 4.5/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Pittsburgh Pirates. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.5/10 for Pittsburgh Pirates versus 4.5/10 for Detroit Tigers.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Detroit Tigers is using a bullpen game. River Ryan is expected to cover about 2.2 innings, leaving roughly 6.8 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.3/10 risk with 4.5/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Pittsburgh Pirates. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.5/10 for Pittsburgh Pirates versus 4.5/10 for Detroit Tigers.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
- Leo side
- Baltimore Orioles Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.5/10
- Model probability
- 72.2%
- Market probability
- 47.7%
- Model vs market
- +24.5%
- Current price
- +106
- Pitcher edge
- Baltimore Orioles by 20 points
- Bullpen read
- Baltimore Orioles has the fresher bullpen, 5.2/10 versus 7.5/10. New York Yankees has used 27.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: JR Ritchie Over 4.5 +110
- Leo side
- Miami Marlins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.5/10
- Model probability
- 66.2%
- Market probability
- 53.1%
- Model vs market
- +13.1%
- Current price
- -118
- Pitcher edge
- Miami Marlins by 10 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Miami Marlins is 7.9/10 and Atlanta Braves is 7.2/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Anthony Kay Over 3.5 +110
- Leo side
- Chicago White Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.1/10
- Model probability
- 71.0%
- Market probability
- 59.3%
- Model vs market
- +11.8%
- Current price
- -155
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago White Sox by 15 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Chicago White Sox is 9.3/10 and Colorado Rockies is 7.9/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Dean Kremer Over 4.5 -115
- Leo side
- Minnesota Twins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.3/10
- Model probability
- 51.3%
- Market probability
- 48.5%
- Model vs market
- +2.9%
- Current price
- +102
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Minnesota Twins is 6.6/10 and Texas Rangers is 7.9/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Max Scherzer Over 4.5 -131
Pitcher Ks: Brandon Williamson Under 3.5 -172
- Leo side
- Cincinnati Reds Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 2.3/10
- Model probability
- 59.8%
- Market probability
- 40.0%
- Model vs market
- +19.8%
- Current price
- +145
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- Cincinnati Reds has the fresher bullpen, 6.2/10 versus 9.2/10. Toronto Blue Jays has used 35.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.