MLB matchup analysis
Dodgers vs Giants Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at Oracle Park · 3:05 PM ET
Leo prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline
The case for Los Angeles Dodgers
The case for San Francisco Giants
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Los Angeles Dodgers is a value watch, not an official pick. Leo projects 73.3% against a 68.3% no-vig market number, a 5.1% model edge at -230. Lab Rating 9.0/10: conviction 9.16, pitching plan 30.67, offense 49.73. Los Angeles Dodgers's pen efficiency: Effective (7.4/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.2 points from 96.5% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.3%. It stayed a value watch under the stricter official-pick review. Lineup check: Los Angeles Dodgers is a touch above its season form (+0.042 OPS); San Francisco Giants is in a cold stretch (-0.079 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Dodgers 5, Giants 1
How the analysis held up
Los Angeles Dodgers won, the side Leo's model favored.
Jack Dreyer (Los Angeles Dodgers) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Carson Seymour actually pitched better tonight: 1.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 2.0 IP, 1 ER (4.50 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 8.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
The San Francisco Giants bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 3 earned runs over 9.0 innings (3.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight. Note: 2 of the runs charged to the San Francisco Giants pitching staff overall were unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
Game information
| Matchup | Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 27, 2026 |
| First pitch | 3:05 PM ET |
| Venue | Oracle Park |
| Starting pitchers | Jack Dreyer vs Carson Seymour |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 62°F, 0% precipitation chance, 15 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Dodgers | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Opener / bullpen game | Opener / bullpen game |
| Expected innings | 1⅓ | 1 |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 73 | 50 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.20 | 4.55 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.10 | 1.48 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 10.2 | 6.5 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 19.2% | 5.0% |
| K% (higher is better) | 28.0% | 16.4% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.8% | 11.4% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.2 | 4.5 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Ground-ball rate | 51.3% | 55.1% |
| Fly-ball rate | 48.7% | 44.9% |
Pitching plan edge: Leo gives the Los Angeles Dodgers pitching plan the edge over Carson Seymour (34 points on Leo's pitcher score). Jack Dreyer is projected for only 1⅓ innings, with the Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen covering the rest -- this compares the Los Angeles Dodgers blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality against Carson Seymour's own line, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Los Angeles Dodgers, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Jack Dreyer (about 1⅓ innings for the starter), so Leo grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 3.00 rather than Jack Dreyer's own 3.20. Whole-game, that is 3.00 for the Los Angeles Dodgers against 4.28 on the other side, so the blended read leans Los Angeles Dodgers.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Dodgers are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 4.4 runs per game over the last 15 days; Giants are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 3.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Dodgers carry the better run differential per game (+1.24 against -0.56).
| Metric | Dodgers | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 2-8 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.805 | 0.629 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.355 | 0.281 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.4 | 3.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 18.3% | 30.1% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Dodgers | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.779 (+0.017 vs szn) | 0.669 (-0.037 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.00 (+0.056 vs szn) | 4.39 (+0.263 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.346 (+0.010 vs szn) | 0.298 (-0.012 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 19.5% (-0.9% vs szn) | 26.0% (+3.9% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Dodgers have been the better offense, 0.346 wOBA to 0.298. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.010 wOBA). Giants are striking out at 26.0% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Dodgers | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 99-62 | 65-96 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +1.24 | -0.56 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.94 | 4.13 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.70 | 4.69 |
| Season OPS | 0.763 | 0.708 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 20.4% | 22.1% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.766 | 0.660 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Dodgers and Giants are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Dodgers | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.5/10, Tired | 7.6/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 7.4/10, Effective | 5.6/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 6.3/10, Tired | 7.3/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 30.7 | 25.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 1.47 | 3.55 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.78 | 1.18 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 0.8 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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