MLB matchup analysis
Reds vs Blue Jays Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at Rogers Centre · 3:07 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Reds vs Blue Jays
The case for Cincinnati Reds
The case for Toronto Blue Jays
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Reds 1, Blue Jays 5
How the analysis held up
Toronto Blue Jays won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Max Scherzer (Toronto Blue Jays), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Brandon Williamson: 7.0 IP, 1 ER (1.29 ERA) against 3.0 IP, 4 ER (12.00 ERA). The edge held up.
The Cincinnati Reds bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 1 earned run allowed over 5.0 relief innings (1.80 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 2.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Likely driver: Brandon Williamson, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 12.00 ERA, and the opposing starter (1.29 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way.
Game information
| Matchup | Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 27, 2026 |
| First pitch | 3:07 PM ET |
| Venue | Rogers Centre |
| Starting pitchers | Brandon Williamson vs Max Scherzer |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 67°F, 0% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from NE. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Reds | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅔ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 45 | 50 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.30 | 5.74 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.46 | 1.33 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.2 | 7.2 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 2.6% | 9.1% |
| K% (higher is better) | 15.6% | 18.7% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 13.0% | 9.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 5.1 | 3.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Ground-ball rate | 42.1% | 32.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 57.9% | 67.4% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Max Scherzer a 5-point edge over Brandon Williamson, driven mainly by BB/9 (3.7 vs 5.1) and K-BB% (9.1% vs 2.6%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Reds are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 3.9 runs per game over the last 15 days; Blue Jays are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 3.9 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Blue Jays carry the better run differential per game (-0.28 against -0.99).
| Metric | Reds | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.669 | 0.679 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.295 | 0.305 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 26.1% | 17.0% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Reds | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.704 | 0.723 (+0.032 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.21 (+0.103 vs szn) | 4.41 (+0.407 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.309 | 0.322 (+0.016 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 26.5% (+1.0% vs szn) | 17.1% (-1.9% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Blue Jays have been the better offense, 0.322 wOBA to 0.309. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.016 wOBA). Reds are striking out at 26.5% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Reds | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 75-86 | 78-83 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.99 | -0.28 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.11 | 4.00 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 5.10 | 4.28 |
| Season OPS | 0.700 | 0.691 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 25.5% | 19.0% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.693 | 0.657 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Reds and Blue Jays are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Reds | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.2/10, Tired | 9.2/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 5.3/10, Average | 6.6/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 6.1/10, Normal | 8.4/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 23.3 | 35.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.47 | 2.06 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.37 | 1.09 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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