Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Thursday, September 24, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
12
OFFICIAL PICKS
9
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
4
PASSES
6
Updated Sep 24, 8:50 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Top Lab Rating
Official Pick
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees
Official markets
Moneyline: New York Yankees -147
- Leo side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.5/10
- Model probability
- 72.3%
- Market probability
- 56.9%
- Model vs market
- +15.4%
- Current price
- -136
- Pitcher edge
- New York Yankees by 17 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. New York Yankees is 6.1/10 and Tampa Bay Rays is 5.9/10.
Why Leo made this decisionNew York Yankees is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 72.3% chance to win, compared with the market's 56.9% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 8.5/10 Lab Rating. New York Yankees has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 17 rating points. New York Yankees carries the higher-risk bullpen, 6.4/10 versus 4.7/10. Recent context: 15.7 relief innings over the last 7 days, 4 back-to-back arms. New York Yankees's pen has been average lately (4.5/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.5 points from 94.8% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.3%. At -136, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk notePrimary caution: bullpen fatigue adds late-game caution. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Ranger Suarez Under 4.5 -140
- Leo side
- Cleveland Guardians Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.5/10
- Model probability
- 68.0%
- Market probability
- 45.8%
- Model vs market
- +22.2%
- Current price
- +112
- Pitcher edge
- Cleveland Guardians by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- Cleveland Guardians carries the heavier bullpen workload, 6.0/10 versus 4.3/10, which adds late-game risk. Cleveland Guardians has used 21.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Cleveland Guardians is using a bullpen game. Daniel Espino is expected to cover about 1.3 innings, leaving roughly 7.7 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.0/10 risk with 7.0/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 7.0/10 for Cleveland Guardians versus 6.6/10 for Boston Red Sox.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Cleveland Guardians is using a bullpen game. Daniel Espino is expected to cover about 1.3 innings, leaving roughly 7.7 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.0/10 risk with 7.0/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 7.0/10 for Cleveland Guardians versus 6.6/10 for Boston Red Sox.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
- Leo side
- Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.2/10
- Model probability
- 59.2%
- Market probability
- 57.3%
- Model vs market
- +1.9%
- Current price
- -140
- Pitcher edge
- Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 points
- Bullpen read
- Pittsburgh Pirates carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.5/10 versus 5.6/10, which adds late-game risk. Pittsburgh Pirates has used 37.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionPittsburgh Pirates is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 59.2% win probability, the market is at 57.3%, and the setup carries a 7.2/10 Lab Rating. Pittsburgh Pirates has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 5 rating points. Pittsburgh Pirates carries the higher-risk bullpen, 9.3/10 versus 4.9/10. Recent context: 37.0 relief innings over the last 7 days, 7 back-to-back arms. Pittsburgh Pirates's pen has been average lately (5.4/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 12.0 points from 71.2% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 59.2%.
Risk notePrimary caution: bullpen fatigue adds late-game caution. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
Official markets
Moneyline: Seattle Mariners -127
- Leo side
- Seattle Mariners Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.2/10
- Model probability
- 72.6%
- Market probability
- 54.8%
- Model vs market
- +17.8%
- Current price
- -128
- Pitcher edge
- Seattle Mariners by 26 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Seattle Mariners is 7.7/10 and Los Angeles Angels is 8.9/10.
Why Leo made this decisionSeattle Mariners is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 72.6% chance to win, compared with the market's 54.8% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 7.2/10 Lab Rating. Seattle Mariners has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 26 rating points. Seattle Mariners has the lower-risk bullpen, 7.8/10 versus 10.0/10. Los Angeles Angels has 22.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 7 back-to-back arms. Los Angeles Angels's pen has been struggling lately (2.6/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.3 points from 94.9% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.6%. At -128, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
New York Mets @ Texas Rangers
- Leo side
- New York Mets Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.9/10
- Model probability
- 68.2%
- Market probability
- 46.9%
- Model vs market
- +21.3%
- Current price
- +115
- Pitcher edge
- New York Mets by 12 points
- Bullpen read
- New York Mets has the fresher bullpen, 5.2/10 versus 7.8/10. Texas Rangers has used 36.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionNew York Mets is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 68.2% win probability, the market is at 46.9%, and the setup carries a 6.9/10 Lab Rating. New York Mets has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 12 rating points. New York Mets has the lower-risk bullpen, 4.4/10 versus 8.0/10. Texas Rangers has 36.0 relief innings over the last 7 days, 6 back-to-back arms. Texas Rangers's pen has been average lately (4.7/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 16.9 points from 85.2% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 68.2%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Tyler Mahle Over 5.5 -135
Pitcher Ks: Brady Singer Over 3.5 -128
- Leo side
- Atlanta Braves Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.9/10
- Model probability
- 73.3%
- Market probability
- 67.1%
- Model vs market
- +6.3%
- Current price
- -215
- Pitcher edge
- Atlanta Braves by 21 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Atlanta Braves is 6.2/10 and Cincinnati Reds is 5.3/10.
Why Leo made this decisionAtlanta Braves is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 73.3% win probability, the market is at 67.1%, and the setup carries a 6.9/10 Lab Rating. Atlanta Braves has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 21 rating points. No meaningful bullpen risk edge — both pens come in comparable (Atlanta Braves 5.6/10, Cincinnati Reds 5.0/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.4 points from 96.7% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.3%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Eduardo Rodriguez Over 4.5 -130
- Leo side
- Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.5/10
- Model probability
- 73.7%
- Market probability
- 63.5%
- Model vs market
- +10.2%
- Current price
- -186
- Pitcher edge
- Arizona Diamondbacks by 25 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Arizona Diamondbacks is 6.8/10 and Colorado Rockies is 6.7/10.
Why Leo made this decisionArizona Diamondbacks is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 73.7% win probability, the market is at 63.5%, and the setup carries a 6.5/10 Lab Rating. Arizona Diamondbacks has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 25 rating points. No meaningful bullpen risk edge — both pens come in comparable (Arizona Diamondbacks 5.7/10, Colorado Rockies 6.0/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.7 points from 97.4% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.7%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Andrew Painter Over 4.5 -155
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.3/10
- Model probability
- 67.7%
- Market probability
- 44.8%
- Model vs market
- +22.9%
- Current price
- +118
- Pitcher edge
- Milwaukee Brewers by 12 points
- Bullpen read
- Milwaukee Brewers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.0/10 versus 5.8/10, which adds late-game risk. Milwaukee Brewers has used 35.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.2/10
- Model probability
- 58.4%
- Market probability
- 60.7%
- Model vs market
- -2.3%
- Current price
- -165
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- Los Angeles Dodgers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.5/10 versus 7.6/10, which adds late-game risk. Los Angeles Dodgers has used 34.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Houston Astros @ Athletics
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Peter Lambert Over 4.5 +120
- Leo side
- Houston Astros Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.7/10
- Model probability
- 73.2%
- Market probability
- 61.4%
- Model vs market
- +11.8%
- Current price
- -168
- Pitcher edge
- Houston Astros by 18 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Houston Astros is 10.0/10 and Athletics is 9.1/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Athletics is using a bullpen game. Mason Barnett is expected to cover about 3.0 innings, leaving roughly 6.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 9.2/10 risk with 4.8/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Houston Astros. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.1/10 for Houston Astros versus 4.8/10 for Athletics.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Athletics is using a bullpen game. Mason Barnett is expected to cover about 3.0 innings, leaving roughly 6.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 9.2/10 risk with 4.8/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Houston Astros. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.1/10 for Houston Astros versus 4.8/10 for Athletics.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Matthew Boyd Over 3.5 -110
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.2/10
- Model probability
- 52.2%
- Market probability
- 64.3%
- Model vs market
- -12.1%
- Current price
- -210
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- Chicago Cubs has the fresher bullpen, 6.8/10 versus 9.0/10. Miami Marlins has used 21.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals
- Leo side
- Kansas City Royals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.0/10
- Model probability
- 66.5%
- Market probability
- -
- Model vs market
- -
- Current price
- -
- Pitcher edge
- Kansas City Royals by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- Kansas City Royals has the fresher bullpen, 6.6/10 versus 8.4/10. Chicago White Sox has used 30.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 3 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionNo market data available, so this stays research-only until pricing is checked.
Pass reasonNo market data available, so this stays research-only until pricing is checked.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.