MLB matchup analysis
Cardinals vs Pirates Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Thursday, September 24, 2026 at PNC Park · 12:35 PM ET
Leo prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline
The case for Pittsburgh Pirates
The case for St. Louis Cardinals
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Pittsburgh Pirates remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 7.2/10: conviction 2.1, pitching plan 28, offense 41.69. Leo projects 59.2% against a 57.3% no-vig market number, a 1.9% model edge at -140. Pittsburgh Pirates owns the starting pitcher edge by 5 points. Bullpen read: Adds caution. Pittsburgh Pirates's pen efficiency: Average (5.4/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 12.0 points from 71.2% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 59.2%. Lineup check: Pittsburgh Pirates is near its season form (+0.009 OPS); St. Louis Cardinals is in a cold stretch (-0.087 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Cardinals 1, Pirates 2
How the analysis held up
Pittsburgh Pirates won, the side Leo's model favored.
Paul Skenes (Pittsburgh Pirates), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Kyle Leahy: 6.1 IP, 1 ER (1.42 ERA) against 2.0 IP, 1 ER (4.50 ERA). The edge held up.
The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 6.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the St. Louis Cardinals pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 2.2 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Game information
| Matchup | St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|
| Date | Thursday, September 24, 2026 |
| First pitch | 12:35 PM ET |
| Venue | PNC Park |
| Starting pitchers | Kyle Leahy vs Paul Skenes |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 58°F, 0% precipitation chance, 4 mph wind from NE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Cardinals | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅔ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 66 | 71 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.66 | 3.82 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.34 | 1.12 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.5 | 10.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 15.3% | 21.2% |
| K% (higher is better) | 22.1% | 28.1% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.9% | 6.9% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 53.7% | 44.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 46.3% | 55.4% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Paul Skenes a 5-point edge over Kyle Leahy, driven mainly by K-BB% (21.2% vs 15.3%) and K/9 (10.3 vs 8.5).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Cardinals are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 3.7 runs per game over the last 15 days; Pirates are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 3.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (-0.14 against +0.18).
| Metric | Cardinals | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 3-7 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.607 | 0.744 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.274 | 0.330 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.7 | 3.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 25.1% | 20.9% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Cardinals | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.671 (-0.022 vs szn) | 0.725 (-0.010 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.63 (+0.164 vs szn) | 3.73 (-1.005 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.298 (-0.010 vs szn) | 0.323 |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.4% (+2.3% vs szn) | 21.7% (-2.3% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Pirates have been the better offense, 0.323 wOBA to 0.298.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Cardinals | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 77-81 | 80-78 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.14 | +0.18 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.47 | 4.74 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.60 | 4.56 |
| Season OPS | 0.694 | 0.735 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.0% | 24.0% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.688 | 0.752 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Cardinals and Pirates are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Cardinals | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.6/10, Normal | 9.5/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 6.5/10, Effective | 5.4/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 4.9/10, Normal | 9.3/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 20.3 | 37.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 7 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.66 | 3.41 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.93 | 1.35 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 3.5 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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