MLB matchup analysis
Mets vs Rangers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Thursday, September 24, 2026 at Globe Life Field · 2:35 PM ET
Leo prediction: New York Mets moneyline
The case for New York Mets
The case for Texas Rangers
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
New York Mets remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.9/10: conviction 6.62, pitching plan 26.67, offense 35.81. Leo projects 68.2% against a 46.9% no-vig market number, a 21.3% model edge at +115. New York Mets owns the starting pitcher edge by 12 points. Bullpen read: Supports Leo side. New York Mets's pen efficiency: Effective (6.7/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 16.9 points from 85.2% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 68.2%. Lineup check: New York Mets is a touch above its season form (+0.048 OPS); Texas Rangers is in a cold stretch (-0.086 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Mets 1, Rangers 3
How the analysis held up
Texas Rangers won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Zac Thornton (New York Mets) was Leo's favored starter by pitcher score, but Kumar Rocker actually pitched better tonight: 5.0 IP, 1 ER (1.80 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 2 ER (3.60 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Texas Rangers bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 4.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Likely driver: the Texas Rangers bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 4.0 innings), and the opposing starter (1.80 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way.
Game information
| Matchup | New York Mets at Texas Rangers |
|---|---|
| Date | Thursday, September 24, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:35 PM ET |
| Venue | Globe Life Field |
| Starting pitchers | Zac Thornton vs Kumar Rocker |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 91°F, 0% precipitation chance, 8 mph wind from E. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Mets | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 70 | 58 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.42 | 4.38 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.14 | 1.41 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.7 | 8.4 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 13.4% | 11.9% |
| K% (higher is better) | 18.7% | 21.4% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 5.3% | 9.5% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 1.9 | 3.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.4% | 47.1% |
| Fly-ball rate | 56.6% | 52.9% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Zac Thornton a 12-point edge over Kumar Rocker, driven mainly by BB/9 (1.9 vs 3.7) and WHIP (1.14 vs 1.41).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Mets are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.9 runs per game over the last 15 days; Rangers are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 3.8 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (-0.22 against -0.25).
| Metric | Mets | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.753 | 0.626 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.330 | 0.283 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.9 | 3.8 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 19.5% | 25.9% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Mets | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.723 (+0.021 vs szn) | 0.720 (+0.008 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.86 (+0.568 vs szn) | 4.78 (+0.621 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.318 (+0.007 vs szn) | 0.319 |
| K% (lower is better) | 20.4% (-1.8% vs szn) | 23.5% (+0.6% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Rangers have been the better offense, 0.319 wOBA to 0.318.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Mets | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 73-85 | 78-80 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.22 | -0.25 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.29 | 4.16 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.51 | 4.41 |
| Season OPS | 0.705 | 0.712 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.2% | 23.0% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.714 | 0.760 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Mets and Rangers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Mets | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.2/10, Normal | 7.8/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 6.7/10, Effective | 4.7/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 4.4/10, Normal | 8.0/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 19.7 | 36.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.29 | 4.75 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.92 | 1.28 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 4.6 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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