MLB matchup analysis
Diamondbacks vs Rockies Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Thursday, September 24, 2026 at Coors Field · 3:10 PM ET
Leo prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline
The case for Arizona Diamondbacks
The case for Colorado Rockies
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Arizona Diamondbacks remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.5/10: conviction 9.35, pitching plan 28, offense 27.87. Leo projects 73.7% against a 63.5% no-vig market number, a 10.2% model edge at -186. Arizona Diamondbacks owns the starting pitcher edge by 25 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. Arizona Diamondbacks's pen efficiency: Effective (7.2/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.7 points from 97.4% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.7%. Lineup check: Arizona Diamondbacks is swinging a hot bat (+0.083 OPS); Colorado Rockies is near its season form (-0.019 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Diamondbacks 12, Rockies 8
How the analysis held up
Arizona Diamondbacks won, the side Leo's model favored.
Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Tanner Gordon: 6.0 IP, 2 ER (3.00 ERA) against 3.1 IP, 10 ER (27.00 ERA). The edge held up.
The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 6 earned runs allowed over 3.0 relief innings (18.00 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
Game information
| Matchup | Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|
| Date | Thursday, September 24, 2026 |
| First pitch | 3:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Coors Field |
| Starting pitchers | Eduardo Rodriguez vs Tanner Gordon |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 68°F, 7% precipitation chance, 4 mph wind from SE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Diamondbacks | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 6 | 4⅔ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 71 | 39 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.89 | 6.68 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.24 | 1.66 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.8 | 7.4 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 10.3% | 12.9% |
| K% (higher is better) | 18.1% | 18.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.9% | 5.1% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.3% | 37.9% |
| Fly-ball rate | 55.7% | 62.1% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Eduardo Rodriguez a 32-point edge over Tanner Gordon, driven mainly by ERA (2.89 vs 6.68) and WHIP (1.24 vs 1.66).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Diamondbacks are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.9 runs per game over the last 15 days; Rockies are 2-8 in their last 10 and averaging 3.6 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Diamondbacks carry the better run differential per game (+0.06 against -1.18).
| Metric | Diamondbacks | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 2-8 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 2-8 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.798 | 0.718 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.345 | 0.317 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.9 | 3.6 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.5% | 21.3% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Diamondbacks | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.730 (+0.011 vs szn) | 0.750 (+0.010 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.41 (-0.102 vs szn) | 4.29 (-0.368 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.320 | 0.330 |
| K% (lower is better) | 21.2% (+1.7% vs szn) | 22.7% |
Over the last 30 days the Rockies have been the better offense, 0.330 wOBA to 0.320.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Diamondbacks | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 84-74 | 57-101 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.06 | -1.18 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.51 | 4.65 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.45 | 5.84 |
| Season OPS | 0.715 | 0.737 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 19.5% | 22.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.687 | 0.709 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Diamondbacks and Rockies are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Diamondbacks | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.8/10, Tired | 6.7/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 7.2/10, Effective | 6.5/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 5.7/10, Normal | 6.0/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 20.3 | 28.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 3 |
| 7-day ERA | 1.77 | 2.54 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.84 | 0.95 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 9.6 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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