Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Wednesday, September 23, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
16
OFFICIAL PICKS
11
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
1
WATCHLIST
2
PASSES
11
Updated Sep 23, 8:53 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
Get tomorrow's MLB model card free
One email, every morning. No payment required.
Get the organized member view
Members get official picks first, value watch setups second, and clear pass reasons for the rest of the card.
Top Lab Rating
Official Pick
Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies
Official markets
Moneyline: Milwaukee Brewers -125
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 9.1/10
- Model probability
- 72.5%
- Market probability
- 54.1%
- Model vs market
- +18.4%
- Current price
- -122
- Pitcher edge
- Milwaukee Brewers by 23 points
- Bullpen read
- Milwaukee Brewers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.9/10 versus 6.4/10, which adds late-game risk. Milwaukee Brewers has used 35.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionMilwaukee Brewers is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 72.5% chance to win, compared with the market's 54.1% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 9.1/10 Lab Rating. Milwaukee Brewers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 23 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Milwaukee Brewers is 8.7/10 and Philadelphia Phillies is 7.3/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.7 points from 95.2% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.5%. At -122, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Andrew Abbott Over 3.5 -127
- Leo side
- Atlanta Braves Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.4/10
- Model probability
- 73.4%
- Market probability
- 65.5%
- Model vs market
- +7.8%
- Current price
- -200
- Pitcher edge
- Atlanta Braves by 31 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Atlanta Braves is 6.1/10 and Cincinnati Reds is 6.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionAtlanta Braves grades as a strong value setup with 73.4% model win probability against a 65.5% market number and a 8.4/10 Lab Rating. Atlanta Braves has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 31 rating points. No meaningful bullpen risk edge — both pens come in comparable (Atlanta Braves 5.9/10, Cincinnati Reds 5.8/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.4 points from 96.7% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.4%. It stayed a value watch under the stricter official-pick review.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Official markets
Moneyline: Los Angeles Dodgers -150
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.9/10
- Model probability
- 73.4%
- Market probability
- 61.2%
- Model vs market
- +12.2%
- Current price
- -167
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Dodgers by 19 points
- Bullpen read
- Los Angeles Dodgers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.5/10 versus 7.3/10, which adds late-game risk. Los Angeles Dodgers has used 39.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionLos Angeles Dodgers is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 73.4% chance to win, compared with the market's 61.2% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 7.9/10 Lab Rating. Los Angeles Dodgers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 19 rating points. Los Angeles Dodgers carries the higher-risk bullpen, 8.6/10 versus 6.5/10. Recent context: 39.0 relief innings over the last 7 days, 4 back-to-back arms. Los Angeles Dodgers's pen has been effective lately (6.8/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.6 points from 97.0% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.4%. At -167, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk notePrimary caution: bullpen fatigue adds late-game caution. Recheck official news before first pitch.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
- Leo side
- Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.0/10
- Model probability
- 67.6%
- Market probability
- 59.3%
- Model vs market
- +8.3%
- Current price
- -155
- Pitcher edge
- Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 points
- Bullpen read
- Pittsburgh Pirates carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.9/10 versus 5.8/10, which adds late-game risk. Pittsburgh Pirates has used 32.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Pittsburgh Pirates is using a bullpen game. Lake Bachar is expected to cover about 2.1 innings, leaving roughly 6.9 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.6/10 risk with 5.7/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.7/10 for Pittsburgh Pirates versus 5.6/10 for St. Louis Cardinals.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pittsburgh Pirates is using a bullpen game. Lake Bachar is expected to cover about 2.1 innings, leaving roughly 6.9 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.6/10 risk with 5.7/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.7/10 for Pittsburgh Pirates versus 5.6/10 for St. Louis Cardinals.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Mason Englert Over 4.5 -124
- Leo side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.9/10
- Model probability
- 72.5%
- Market probability
- 57.8%
- Model vs market
- +14.7%
- Current price
- -145
- Pitcher edge
- New York Yankees by 18 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (New York Yankees 4.3/10, Tampa Bay Rays 5.7/10).
Why Leo made this decisionNew York Yankees is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 72.5% win probability, the market is at 57.8%, and the setup carries a 6.9/10 Lab Rating. New York Yankees has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 18 rating points. No meaningful bullpen risk edge — both pens come in comparable (New York Yankees 4.4/10, Tampa Bay Rays 4.4/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.5 points from 95.0% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.5%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
New York Mets @ Texas Rangers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Nolan McLean Over 5.5 -118
- Leo side
- New York Mets Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.7/10
- Model probability
- 72.3%
- Market probability
- 50.0%
- Model vs market
- +22.4%
- Current price
- -106
- Pitcher edge
- New York Mets by 19 points
- Bullpen read
- New York Mets has the fresher bullpen, 6.1/10 versus 8.2/10. Texas Rangers has used 36.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionNew York Mets is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 72.3% win probability, the market is at 50.0%, and the setup carries a 6.7/10 Lab Rating. New York Mets has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 19 rating points. New York Mets has the lower-risk bullpen, 5.2/10 versus 7.8/10. Texas Rangers has 36.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 6 back-to-back arms. Texas Rangers's pen has been effective lately (5.8/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 21.9 points from 94.2% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.3%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers
- Leo side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.2/10
- Model probability
- 70.0%
- Market probability
- 39.7%
- Model vs market
- +30.3%
- Current price
- +175
- Pitcher edge
- Detroit Tigers by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Detroit Tigers is 7.3/10 and Washington Nationals is 8.6/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Washington Nationals is using a bullpen game. Richard Lovelady is expected to cover about 1.4 innings, leaving roughly 7.6 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 8.9/10 risk with 4.4/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Detroit Tigers. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.2/10 for Detroit Tigers versus 4.4/10 for Washington Nationals.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Washington Nationals is using a bullpen game. Richard Lovelady is expected to cover about 1.4 innings, leaving roughly 7.6 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 8.9/10 risk with 4.4/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Detroit Tigers. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.2/10 for Detroit Tigers versus 4.4/10 for Washington Nationals.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Walbert Ureña Over 4.5 -130
Pitcher Ks: Jeffrey Springs Over 4.5 -125
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Angels Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.2/10
- Model probability
- 73.8%
- Market probability
- 55.3%
- Model vs market
- +18.5%
- Current price
- -130
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Angels by 29 points
- Bullpen read
- Los Angeles Angels has the fresher bullpen, 5.8/10 versus 7.9/10. Athletics has used 31.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 2 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 -138
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.4/10
- Model probability
- 61.5%
- Market probability
- 62.8%
- Model vs market
- -1.3%
- Current price
- -187
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago Cubs by 4 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Chicago Cubs is 6.4/10 and Miami Marlins is 7.4/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.2/10
- Model probability
- 60.7%
- Market probability
- 55.9%
- Model vs market
- +4.8%
- Current price
- -134
- Pitcher edge
- Boston Red Sox by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- Boston Red Sox has the fresher bullpen, 4.3/10 versus 6.1/10. Cleveland Guardians has used 22.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners
- Leo side
- Houston Astros Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.1/10
- Model probability
- 55.1%
- Market probability
- 46.3%
- Model vs market
- +8.8%
- Current price
- +110
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Houston Astros carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.7/10 versus 6.1/10, which adds late-game risk. Houston Astros has used 33.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
- Leo side
- Toronto Blue Jays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.0/10
- Model probability
- 72.5%
- Market probability
- 47.4%
- Model vs market
- +25.1%
- Current price
- +109
- Pitcher edge
- Toronto Blue Jays by 24 points
- Bullpen read
- Toronto Blue Jays carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.7/10 versus 4.9/10, which adds late-game risk. Toronto Blue Jays has used 26.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Merrill Kelly Over 3.5 -130
- Leo side
- Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.5/10
- Model probability
- 67.3%
- Market probability
- 61.6%
- Model vs market
- +5.7%
- Current price
- -176
- Pitcher edge
- Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Arizona Diamondbacks is 6.3/10 and Colorado Rockies is 7.6/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Seth Lugo Over 4.5 +102
- Leo side
- Chicago White Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.4/10
- Model probability
- 55.0%
- Market probability
- 52.1%
- Model vs market
- +2.9%
- Current price
- -114
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Chicago White Sox is 7.0/10 and Kansas City Royals is 5.8/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Chicago White Sox is using a bullpen game. Bryan Hudson is expected to cover about 1.1 innings, leaving roughly 7.9 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.9/10 risk with 3.2/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 3.2/10 for Chicago White Sox versus 2.4/10 for Kansas City Royals.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Chicago White Sox is using a bullpen game. Bryan Hudson is expected to cover about 1.1 innings, leaving roughly 7.9 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.9/10 risk with 3.2/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 3.2/10 for Chicago White Sox versus 2.4/10 for Kansas City Royals.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Connor Prielipp Over 5.5 +112
- Leo side
- Minnesota Twins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.1/10
- Model probability
- 61.4%
- Market probability
- 59.1%
- Model vs market
- +2.3%
- Current price
- -152
- Pitcher edge
- Minnesota Twins by 4 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Minnesota Twins is 5.7/10 and San Francisco Giants is 7.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
- Leo side
- Baltimore Orioles Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.0/10
- Model probability
- 63.7%
- Market probability
- 52.6%
- Model vs market
- +11.1%
- Current price
- -120
- Pitcher edge
- Baltimore Orioles by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- Baltimore Orioles has the fresher bullpen, 4.9/10 versus 9.7/10. Toronto Blue Jays has used 26.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.