MLB matchup analysis
Brewers vs Phillies Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at Citizens Bank Park · 6:40 PM ET
Leo prediction: Milwaukee Brewers moneyline
The case for Milwaukee Brewers
The case for Philadelphia Phillies
What to watch
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Milwaukee Brewers is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 72.5% model win probability and 9.1/10 Lab Rating. Leo projects 72.5% against a 54.1% no-vig market number, a 18.4% model edge at -122. Milwaukee Brewers owns the starting pitcher edge by 23 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. Milwaukee Brewers's pen efficiency: Effective (5.5/10). Lineup check: Milwaukee Brewers is a touch above its season form (+0.045 OPS); Philadelphia Phillies is near its season form (-0.017 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Brewers 4, Phillies 1
How the analysis held up
Milwaukee Brewers won, the side Leo's model favored.
Logan Henderson (Milwaukee Brewers), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Aaron Nola: 5.0 IP, 1 ER (1.80 ERA) against 6.0 IP, 4 ER (6.00 ERA). The edge held up.
The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 4.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 3.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Milwaukee Brewers scored 4, 2.9 fewer than the 6.9 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 23, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Citizens Bank Park |
| Starting pitchers | Logan Henderson vs Aaron Nola |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 65°F, 0% precipitation chance, 10 mph wind from NE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Brewers | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 83 | 60 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.47 | 4.54 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 0.84 | 1.33 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 10.1 | 9.1 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 24.5% | 16.0% |
| K% (higher is better) | 29.6% | 24.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 5.1% | 8.0% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 1.7 | 3.0 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Ground-ball rate | 36.2% | 47.9% |
| Fly-ball rate | 63.8% | 52.1% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Logan Henderson a 23-point edge over Aaron Nola, driven mainly by WHIP (0.84 vs 1.33) and K-BB% (24.5% vs 16.0%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 6.3 runs per game over the last 15 days; Phillies are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.7 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Brewers carry the better run differential per game (+1.28 against +0.18).
| Metric | Brewers | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.787 | 0.692 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.344 | 0.309 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 6.3 | 4.7 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 26.2% | 18.8% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Brewers | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.778 (+0.037 vs szn) | 0.663 (-0.046 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.93 (+0.799 vs szn) | 3.89 (-0.567 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.342 (+0.014 vs szn) | 0.297 (-0.016 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.8% (+1.8% vs szn) | 19.7% (-2.1% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Brewers have been the better offense, 0.342 wOBA to 0.297. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.014 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Brewers | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 98-59 | 87-70 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +1.28 | +0.18 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 5.13 | 4.46 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.84 | 4.28 |
| Season OPS | 0.742 | 0.709 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.0% | 21.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.759 | 0.708 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Brewers and Phillies are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Brewers | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 8.9/10, High risk | 6.4/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.5/10, Effective | 3.3/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 8.7/10, High risk | 7.3/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 35.7 | 20.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.53 | 5.66 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.23 | 1.84 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.2 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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