Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Wednesday, September 16, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
15
OFFICIAL PICKS
10
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
1
WATCHLIST
0
PASSES
10
Updated Sep 16, 8:53 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
Get tomorrow's MLB model card free
One email, every morning. No payment required.
Get the organized member view
Members get official picks first, value watch setups second, and clear pass reasons for the rest of the card.
Top Lab Rating
Official Pick
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Official markets
Moneyline: Milwaukee Brewers -118
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 9.8/10
- Model probability
- 70.4%
- Market probability
- 54.1%
- Model vs market
- +16.3%
- Current price
- -125
- Pitcher edge
- Milwaukee Brewers by 16 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Milwaukee Brewers is 7.1/10 and Pittsburgh Pirates is 8.1/10.
Why Leo made this decisionMilwaukee Brewers is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 70.4% chance to win, compared with the market's 54.1% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 9.8/10 Lab Rating. Milwaukee Brewers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 16 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Milwaukee Brewers is 7.7/10 and Pittsburgh Pirates is 8.8/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 20.2 points from 90.6% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 70.4%. At -125, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.2/10
- Model probability
- 73.7%
- Market probability
- 66.1%
- Model vs market
- +7.6%
- Current price
- -210
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Dodgers by 24 points
- Bullpen read
- Los Angeles Dodgers has the fresher bullpen, 4.4/10 versus 7.1/10. Cincinnati Reds has used 28.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionLos Angeles Dodgers grades as a strong value setup with 73.7% model win probability against a 66.1% market number and a 8.2/10 Lab Rating. Los Angeles Dodgers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 24 rating points. Los Angeles Dodgers has the lower-risk bullpen, 4.8/10 versus 8.8/10. Cincinnati Reds has 28.7 relief innings over the last 7 days, 5 back-to-back arms. Cincinnati Reds's pen has been struggling lately (1.6/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.4 points from 97.2% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.7%. It stayed a value watch under the stricter official-pick review.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
Official markets
Moneyline: Cleveland Guardians +145
- Leo side
- Cleveland Guardians Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.6/10
- Model probability
- 72.6%
- Market probability
- 52.2%
- Model vs market
- +20.4%
- Current price
- +145
- Pitcher edge
- Cleveland Guardians by 21 points
- Bullpen read
- Cleveland Guardians has the fresher bullpen, 7.6/10 versus 10.0/10. Chicago White Sox has used 46.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 2 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionCleveland Guardians is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 72.6% chance to win, compared with the market's 52.2% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 7.6/10 Lab Rating. Cleveland Guardians has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 21 rating points. Cleveland Guardians has the lower-risk bullpen, 7.4/10 versus 9.9/10. Chicago White Sox has 46.0 relief innings over the last 7 days, 2 back-to-back arms. Chicago White Sox's pen has been average lately (5.2/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.2 points from 94.8% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.6%. At +145, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins
Official markets
Moneyline: New York Yankees +118
Pitcher Ks: Carlos Rodon Over 3.5 -145
Pitcher Ks: Carlos Rodón Over 3.5 -145
- Leo side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.5/10
- Model probability
- 70.8%
- Market probability
- 46.0%
- Model vs market
- +24.9%
- Current price
- +118
- Pitcher edge
- New York Yankees by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- New York Yankees has the fresher bullpen, 5.0/10 versus 7.9/10. Minnesota Twins has used 24.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionNew York Yankees is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 70.8% chance to win, compared with the market's 46.0% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 7.5/10 Lab Rating. New York Yankees has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 13 rating points. New York Yankees has the lower-risk bullpen, 5.0/10 versus 9.2/10. Minnesota Twins has 24.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 6 back-to-back arms. Minnesota Twins's pen has been struggling lately (2.4/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 19.8 points from 90.7% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 70.8%. At +118, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs
Official markets
Moneyline: Chicago Cubs -155
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.3/10
- Model probability
- 72.4%
- Market probability
- 59.7%
- Model vs market
- +12.7%
- Current price
- -159
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago Cubs by 18 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Chicago Cubs is 5.2/10 and Atlanta Braves is 6.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionChicago Cubs is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 72.4% chance to win, compared with the market's 59.7% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 7.3/10 Lab Rating. Chicago Cubs has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 18 rating points. No meaningful bullpen risk edge — both pens come in comparable (Chicago Cubs 4.7/10, Atlanta Braves 6.0/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.1 points from 94.5% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.4%. At -159, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals
- Leo side
- Philadelphia Phillies Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.0/10
- Model probability
- 72.9%
- Market probability
- 63.6%
- Model vs market
- +9.3%
- Current price
- -188
- Pitcher edge
- Philadelphia Phillies by 33 points
- Bullpen read
- Philadelphia Phillies has the fresher bullpen, 5.4/10 versus 7.1/10. Washington Nationals has used 24.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 3 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Washington Nationals is using a bullpen game. Jared Simpson is expected to cover about 1.0 innings, leaving roughly 8.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.4/10 risk with 4.5/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Philadelphia Phillies. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 3.1/10 for Philadelphia Phillies versus 4.5/10 for Washington Nationals.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Washington Nationals is using a bullpen game. Jared Simpson is expected to cover about 1.0 innings, leaving roughly 8.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.4/10 risk with 4.5/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Philadelphia Phillies. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 3.1/10 for Philadelphia Phillies versus 4.5/10 for Washington Nationals.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.9/10
- Model probability
- 72.8%
- Market probability
- 70.7%
- Model vs market
- +2.1%
- Current price
- -270
- Pitcher edge
- Tampa Bay Rays by 17 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Tampa Bay Rays 5.9/10, Athletics 5.7/10).
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Athletics is using a bullpen game. Brady Basso is expected to cover about 2.4 innings, leaving roughly 6.6 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.1/10 risk with 2.2/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Tampa Bay Rays. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.1/10 for Tampa Bay Rays versus 2.2/10 for Athletics.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Athletics is using a bullpen game. Brady Basso is expected to cover about 2.4 innings, leaving roughly 6.6 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.1/10 risk with 2.2/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Tampa Bay Rays. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.1/10 for Tampa Bay Rays versus 2.2/10 for Athletics.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Cristian Javier Under 4.5 -106
- Leo side
- Kansas City Royals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.9/10
- Model probability
- 73.3%
- Market probability
- 40.0%
- Model vs market
- +33.2%
- Current price
- +147
- Pitcher edge
- Kansas City Royals by 22 points
- Bullpen read
- Kansas City Royals has the fresher bullpen, 4.4/10 versus 6.4/10. Houston Astros has used 25.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Kansas City Royals is using a bullpen game. Daniel Lynch IV is expected to cover about 3.0 innings, leaving roughly 6.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 4.3/10 risk with 5.3/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.3/10 for Kansas City Royals versus 4.2/10 for Houston Astros.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Kansas City Royals is using a bullpen game. Daniel Lynch IV is expected to cover about 3.0 innings, leaving roughly 6.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 4.3/10 risk with 5.3/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.3/10 for Kansas City Royals versus 4.2/10 for Houston Astros.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets
- Leo side
- New York Mets Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.1/10
- Model probability
- 66.2%
- Market probability
- 50.8%
- Model vs market
- +15.4%
- Current price
- -106
- Pitcher edge
- New York Mets by 11 points
- Bullpen read
- New York Mets has the fresher bullpen, 7.3/10 versus 9.6/10. Baltimore Orioles has used 25.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
New York Mets is using a bullpen game. Xzavion Curry is expected to cover about 3.0 innings, leaving roughly 6.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 8.4/10 risk with 2.8/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 2.8/10 for New York Mets versus 6.0/10 for Baltimore Orioles.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
New York Mets is using a bullpen game. Xzavion Curry is expected to cover about 3.0 innings, leaving roughly 6.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 8.4/10 risk with 2.8/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 2.8/10 for New York Mets versus 6.0/10 for Baltimore Orioles.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels
- Leo side
- Seattle Mariners Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.1/10
- Model probability
- 66.1%
- Market probability
- 54.4%
- Model vs market
- +11.7%
- Current price
- -123
- Pitcher edge
- Seattle Mariners by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Seattle Mariners 4.6/10, Los Angeles Angels 5.8/10).
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Jake Bennett Over 4.5 +120
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.7/10
- Model probability
- 69.4%
- Market probability
- 50.2%
- Model vs market
- +19.2%
- Current price
- -105
- Pitcher edge
- Boston Red Sox by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Boston Red Sox is 6.2/10 and Texas Rangers is 6.7/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays
- Leo side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.5/10
- Model probability
- 73.2%
- Market probability
- 45.7%
- Model vs market
- +27.5%
- Current price
- +115
- Pitcher edge
- Detroit Tigers by 29 points
- Bullpen read
- Detroit Tigers has the fresher bullpen, 7.5/10 versus 10.0/10. Toronto Blue Jays has used 36.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals
- Leo side
- San Francisco Giants Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.2/10
- Model probability
- 68.6%
- Market probability
- 66.0%
- Model vs market
- +2.6%
- Current price
- -182
- Pitcher edge
- San Francisco Giants by 11 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. San Francisco Giants is 6.1/10 and St. Louis Cardinals is 7.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Ryan Gusto Under 3.5 +100
- Leo side
- Miami Marlins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.0/10
- Model probability
- 62.1%
- Market probability
- 43.8%
- Model vs market
- +18.4%
- Current price
- +126
- Pitcher edge
- Miami Marlins by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Miami Marlins is 10.0/10 and Arizona Diamondbacks is 9.4/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Mason Adams Over 3.5 +106
- Leo side
- San Diego Padres Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.4/10
- Model probability
- 60.6%
- Market probability
- 60.0%
- Model vs market
- +0.7%
- Current price
- -158
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. San Diego Padres is 7.2/10 and Colorado Rockies is 7.4/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.