NBA · Monday, November 9, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET · State Farm Arena
Los Angeles Lakers vs Atlanta Hawks: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. LAL at ATL.
Los Angeles Lakers43%Leo win chance
Atlanta Hawks57%Leo win chanceBoth have ATL winning: Leo by 2, DraftKings by 1.5. They are 0.5 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: LAL 118, ATL 120 (total 238). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
Why Leo has ATL by 2
- Team strength: LAL rates 3.3 pts better than ATL on results so far.
- Back to back: LAL played last night, 2.0 pts toward ATL.
- Injuries: LAL is missing more, 1.8 pts toward ATL.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to ATL.
What could still move it. Luka Doncic (LAL, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 3.2 toward ATL; if he plays, 2.1 toward LAL.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to ATL’s expected margin. Positive helps ATL, negative helps LAL.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | -3.3 | ATL rated +1.2, LAL +4.8 points against an average team |
| Back to back | +2.0 | LAL played last night |
| Rest | +0.1 | ATL 2 days, LAL 1 day (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | +1.8 | Value of regulars on the injury report: ATL 1.9, LAL 9.9 |
| Leo’s margin | +2.3 | ATL by 2.3 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Luka Doncic Day to day Back Soreness · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 35.9 min a game
- Quentin Grimes Day to day Finger · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 26 min a game
- Asa Newell Out Toe
- Keshon Gilbert Out Knee Inflammation
- Jock Landale Out Hip · in Leo’s number, plays 13.4 min a game
- Mouhamed Gueye Out Foot Fracture
- Henri Veesaar Out Knee
Form
9-2 this season · 121.9 scored, 114.5 allowed a game
- W 121-116 at DET 11-08
- W 124-118 vs POR 11-06
- W 116-103 at SAC 11-04
- W 138-117 vs MIA 11-02
- W 131-125 vs TOR 11-01
7-4 this season · 118.6 scored, 115.5 allowed a game
- W 124-121 vs BKN 11-07
- W 139-132 vs WSH 11-06
- W 120-105 at WSH 11-04
- W 108-104 at IND 11-02
- L 99-121 at NO 10-31
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Reaves | 11 | 36.2 | 25.3 | 27 | 3.4 | 4.6 |
| Luka Doncic Day to day | 9 | 35.9 | 40.1 | 43.4 | 7.8 | 7.7 |
| Walker Kessler | 11 | 31 | 14.4 | 14.8 | 10.9 | 1.5 |
| Quentin Grimes Day to day | 11 | 26.1 | 8 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Matisse Thybulle | 11 | 24.5 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Ziaire Williams | 8 | 24.1 | 11.1 | 11 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| Jake LaRavia | 10 | 24.1 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 11 | 22.7 | 8.6 | 8 | 4.3 | 1.5 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson | 8 | 33.1 | 19.8 | 18.6 | 8.8 | 7.6 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 11 | 30.6 | 22.1 | 24 | 3.2 | 2.5 |
| Dyson Daniels | 11 | 30.3 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 7.2 | 5.5 |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 11 | 29.5 | 13.5 | 14.2 | 8 | 2.8 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 11 | 26.3 | 14.9 | 14.2 | 3.7 | 2.4 |
| CJ McCollum | 11 | 25.7 | 12.9 | 11 | 3.1 | 3.9 |
| Luguentz Dort | 11 | 25.5 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 3.3 | 1.7 |
| Kingston Flemings | 10 | 21.7 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 2.6 | 4.4 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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