NBA · Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · 9:00 PM ET · Delta Center
Miami Heat vs Utah Jazz: Prediction and Odds
Leo’s read, frozen before tip. MIA at UTAH.
Miami Heat64%Leo win chance
Utah Jazz36%Leo win chanceBoth have MIA winning: Leo by 5.5, DraftKings by 8.5. They are 3 pts apart, under the 4 pt bar, so no lean.
Projected score: MIA 120, UTAH 115 (total 235). Information only; Leo does not lean on totals.
No pick: Leo has MIA 64%, but the price is -359, -230 or dearer.
Why Leo has MIA by 5.5
- Team strength: MIA rates 4.8 pts better than UTAH on results so far.
- Injuries: UTAH is missing more, 2.0 pts toward MIA.
- Home court: worth 1.7 pts to UTAH.
What could still move it. Lauri Markkanen (UTAH, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 0.9 toward MIA; if he plays, 0.6 toward UTAH. Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIA, day to day) is counted at 40%. If he sits, Leo's number moves 2.2 toward UTAH; if he plays, 1.5 toward MIA.
Leo only knows team results, rest and the injury report. It does not know matchups, lineups announced after the read, or motivation, so a small gap from DraftKings is usually noise, which is why nothing under 4 points is a call.
What moves Leo’s number
Points added to UTAH’s expected margin. Positive helps UTAH, negative helps MIA.
| Home court | +1.7 | Average home edge, fitted on the last three seasons |
| Team ratings | -4.8 | UTAH rated -7, MIA -1.9 points against an average team |
| Back to back | 0.0 | Neither team played last night |
| Rest | 0.0 | UTAH 2 days, MIA 2 days (capped at 4) |
| Missing players | -2.0 | Value of regulars on the injury report: UTAH 15.8, MIA 6.7 |
| Leo’s margin | -5.1 | MIA by 5.1 expected |
Injury report
The injury report when Leo made its read. A player marked in Leo’s number is a regular whose value Leo has taken off his team: all of it when he is out, 40% of it when he is day to day, because Leo assumes about 4 in 10 day-to-day players end up sitting. Players without the mark play too little to move the number.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo Day to day Wrist Sprain · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 32.9 min a game
- Keyonte George Out Ankle Sprain · in Leo’s number, plays 32.1 min a game
- Lauri Markkanen Day to day Wrist Sprain · in Leo’s number at 40%, plays 30.9 min a game
- Jusuf Nurkic Out Foot Strain
- Jaren Jackson Jr. Out Knee Not Specified · in Leo’s number, plays 26 min a game
Form
4-6 this season · 115.8 scored, 121.1 allowed a game
- W 114-108 at SAC 11-08
- L 100-120 at GS 11-05
- W 117-116 at LAC 11-04
- L 117-138 at LAL 11-02
- W 145-125 vs IND 10-30
1-9 this season · 106.2 scored, 117.9 allowed a game
- L 100-115 at MIN 11-08
- L 100-112 at DAL 11-06
- L 113-120 at NO 11-04
- L 97-119 at SA 11-02
- L 90-112 vs POR 10-31
Key players this season
Points per game this season and over each player’s last 5 games before this one. Every player’s game log is on Player Scoring.
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell | 10 | 35.5 | 16.2 | 16 | 1.7 | 8.5 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo Day to day | 10 | 32.9 | 27.5 | 27.4 | 12.8 | 5.3 |
| Bam Adebayo | 10 | 32.8 | 18.5 | 22.8 | 8.4 | 3.2 |
| Pelle Larsson | 10 | 29.4 | 11.1 | 11.6 | 3.1 | 3.7 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 10 | 26.4 | 8.3 | 6 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| Klay Thompson | 10 | 24.2 | 14.7 | 21.6 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Bobby Portis | 10 | 20.7 | 7 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 1.8 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 10 | 14.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Player | GP | MIN | PTS | Last 5 | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyonte George Out | 10 | 32.1 | 21.1 | 17.8 | 4.3 | 6.4 |
| Lauri Markkanen Day to day | 8 | 30.9 | 18 | 16.4 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Darryn Peterson | 10 | 30.7 | 14.8 | 16.8 | 4 | 3.9 |
| Ace Bailey | 10 | 30.6 | 11.9 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 1.9 |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. Out | 4 | 26 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 5 | 2 |
| Jaxson Hayes | 9 | 25.3 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 1.9 |
| Josh Okogie | 9 | 18.6 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 |
| Josh Green | 8 | 18 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
Leo’s reads before every game day. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Leo’s win chance and spread come from team results, rest and the injury report. The DraftKings line is shown for comparison and is never an input. Every read is graded on the results page. Analysis only, not betting advice. 21+.
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