MLB matchup analysis
Reds vs Dodgers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 10:10 PM ET
Leo prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline
The case for Los Angeles Dodgers
The case for Cincinnati Reds
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Los Angeles Dodgers remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.7/10: conviction 9.33, pitching plan 40, offense 17.31. Leo projects 73.7% against a 71.2% no-vig market number, a 2.4% model edge at -273. Los Angeles Dodgers owns the starting pitcher edge by 32 points. Bullpen read: Supports Leo side. Los Angeles Dodgers's pen efficiency: Average (5.4/10). Lineup check: Los Angeles Dodgers is in a cold stretch (-0.059 OPS); Cincinnati Reds is swinging a hot bat (+0.105 OPS). Recent form leans against this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Reds 1, Dodgers 14
How the analysis held up
Los Angeles Dodgers won, the side Leo's model favored.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Los Angeles Dodgers), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Rhett Lowder: 7.0 IP, 1 ER (1.29 ERA) against 3.1 IP, 7 ER (18.90 ERA). The edge held up.
The Cincinnati Reds bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 7 earned runs over 4.2 innings (13.50 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 2.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Cincinnati Reds scored 1, 3.3 fewer than the 4.3 pregame projection.
Los Angeles Dodgers scored 14, 8.9 more than the 5.1 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 9, 2026 |
| First pitch | 10:10 PM ET |
| Venue | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Rhett Lowder vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 90°F, 2% precipitation chance, 8 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Reds | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 6⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 49 | 81 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.43 | 2.67 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.49 | 0.90 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.0 | 8.8 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 8.2% | 19.4% |
| K% (higher is better) | 17.2% | 25.4% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.0% | 6.0% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.6 | 2.1 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.6% | 53.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 53.4% | 46.4% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Yoshinobu Yamamoto a 32-point edge over Rhett Lowder, driven mainly by WHIP (0.90 vs 1.49) and K-BB% (19.4% vs 8.2%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Reds are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 5.6 runs per game over the last 15 days; Dodgers are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 4.4 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Dodgers carry the better run differential per game (+1.16 against -0.84).
| Metric | Reds | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 7-3 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 3-7 on the road | 8-2 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.812 | 0.696 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.353 | 0.315 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.6 | 4.4 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 25.7% | 21.1% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Reds | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.706 | 0.730 (-0.029 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.45 (+0.263 vs szn) | 4.89 (-0.093 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.311 | 0.324 (-0.010 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 26.1% (+0.6% vs szn) | 21.2% (+0.5% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Dodgers have been the better offense, 0.324 wOBA to 0.311. They are cooling off against their own season line (-0.010 wOBA). Reds are striking out at 26.1% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Reds | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 69-76 | 88-57 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.84 | +1.16 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.18 | 4.99 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 5.02 | 3.83 |
| Season OPS | 0.707 | 0.755 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 25.5% | 20.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.693 | 0.759 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Reds and Dodgers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Reds | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.5/10, Tired | 5.5/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 5.5/10, Effective | 5.4/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 7.3/10, Tired | 5.3/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 26.0 | 23.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.12 | 3.86 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.38 | 1.16 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.2 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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