MLB matchup analysis
Cubs vs Brewers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at American Family Field · 7:40 PM ET
Leo prediction: Milwaukee Brewers moneyline
The case for Milwaukee Brewers
The case for Chicago Cubs
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Milwaukee Brewers remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.6/10: conviction 8.95, pitching plan 40, offense 17.12. Leo projects 72.9% against a 54.8% no-vig market number, a 18.1% model edge at -125. Milwaukee Brewers owns the starting pitcher edge by 19 points. Bullpen read: Adds caution. Milwaukee Brewers's pen efficiency: Average (5.1/10). Lineup check: Milwaukee Brewers is a touch above its season form (+0.047 OPS); Chicago Cubs is swinging a hot bat (+0.056 OPS).
Final result
Cubs 6, Brewers 8
How the analysis held up
Milwaukee Brewers won, the side Leo's model favored.
Leo's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 51 points — the team-strength model favored Milwaukee Brewers, the run-projection model favored Chicago Cubs. The team-strength model had the winner here.
Logan Henderson (Milwaukee Brewers), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Kevin Gausman: 5.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 4.0 IP, 6 ER (13.50 ERA). The edge held up.
The Chicago Cubs bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 4.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied. Note: 2 of the runs charged to the Chicago Cubs pitching staff overall were unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 5 earned runs over 4.0 innings (11.25 ERA) — the risk read showed up. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Milwaukee Brewers pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
Milwaukee Brewers scored 8, 3.7 more than the 4.3 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 9, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:40 PM ET |
| Venue | American Family Field |
| Starting pitchers | Kevin Gausman vs Logan Henderson |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 80°F, 0% precipitation chance, 6 mph wind from W. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Cubs | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 61 | 83 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.65 | 2.40 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.29 | 0.76 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.2 | 10.2 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 17.6% | 26.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 24.2% | 30.7% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.6% | 4.4% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 45.9% | 34.4% |
| Fly-ball rate | 54.1% | 65.6% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Logan Henderson a 22-point edge over Kevin Gausman, driven mainly by WHIP (0.76 vs 1.29) and ERA (2.40 vs 4.65).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Cubs are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 5.9 runs per game over the last 15 days; Brewers are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 5.6 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.87 against +1.17).
| Metric | Cubs | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 8-2 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.825 | 0.786 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.360 | 0.346 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.9 | 5.6 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 18.8% | 22.3% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Cubs | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.820 (+0.052 vs szn) | 0.761 (+0.022 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.93 (+0.622 vs szn) | 5.41 (+0.366 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.356 (+0.018 vs szn) | 0.336 (+0.009 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 20.0% (-1.4% vs szn) | 22.5% (+0.9% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Cubs have been the better offense, 0.356 wOBA to 0.336. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.018 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Cubs | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 81-65 | 90-56 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.87 | +1.17 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 5.31 | 5.05 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.44 | 3.88 |
| Season OPS | 0.769 | 0.739 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.4% | 21.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.755 | 0.755 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Cubs and Brewers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Cubs | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.3/10, Tired | 9.9/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 5.1/10, Average | 5.1/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 6.3/10, Tired | 9.9/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 24.3 | 27.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 8 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.70 | 3.90 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.44 | 1.37 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.7 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every Leo pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. Leo provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.