Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Sunday, September 6, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
15
OFFICIAL PICKS
22
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
3
PASSES
9
Updated Sep 6, 8:20 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Top Lab Rating
Official Pick
Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins
Official markets
Moneyline: Chicago Cubs -140
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 9.3/10
- Model probability
- 68.0%
- Market probability
- 56.1%
- Model vs market
- +11.9%
- Current price
- -133
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago Cubs by 12 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Chicago Cubs is 6.4/10 and Miami Marlins is 6.7/10.
Why Leo made this decisionChicago Cubs is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 68.0% chance to win, compared with the market's 56.1% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 9.3/10 Lab Rating. Chicago Cubs has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 12 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Chicago Cubs is 6.8/10 and Miami Marlins is 7.6/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 17.7 points from 85.7% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 68.0%. At -133, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians
Official markets
Moneyline: Cleveland Guardians -158
Pitcher Ks: Jackson Jobe Under 3.5 -105
- Leo side
- Cleveland Guardians Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.0/10
- Model probability
- 72.4%
- Market probability
- 60.1%
- Model vs market
- +12.3%
- Current price
- -158
- Pitcher edge
- Cleveland Guardians by 23 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Cleveland Guardians is 8.0/10 and Detroit Tigers is 6.7/10.
Why Leo made this decisionCleveland Guardians is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 72.4% chance to win, compared with the market's 60.1% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 8.0/10 Lab Rating. Cleveland Guardians has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 23 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Cleveland Guardians is 7.3/10 and Detroit Tigers is 8.2/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.3 points from 94.8% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.4%. At -158, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
Official markets
Moneyline: Boston Red Sox -125
Pitcher Ks: Payton Tolle Over 6.5 -161
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.6/10
- Model probability
- 70.8%
- Market probability
- 54.7%
- Model vs market
- +16.1%
- Current price
- -125
- Pitcher edge
- Boston Red Sox by 15 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Boston Red Sox is 6.2/10 and Baltimore Orioles is 6.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBoston Red Sox is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 70.8% chance to win, compared with the market's 54.7% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 7.6/10 Lab Rating. Boston Red Sox has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 15 rating points. Boston Red Sox carries the higher-risk bullpen, 7.7/10 versus 5.8/10. Recent context: 24.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 7 back-to-back arms. Boston Red Sox's pen has been struggling lately (2.0/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 21.2 points from 92.0% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 70.8%. At -125, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk notePrimary caution: bullpen fatigue adds late-game caution. Recheck official news before first pitch.
San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Christian Scott Over 5.5 -101
- Leo side
- San Francisco Giants Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.4/10
- Model probability
- 69.0%
- Market probability
- 39.7%
- Model vs market
- +29.3%
- Current price
- +152
- Pitcher edge
- San Francisco Giants by 12 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. San Francisco Giants is 7.8/10 and New York Mets is 6.4/10.
Why Leo made this decisionSan Francisco Giants is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 69.0% win probability, the market is at 39.7%, and the setup carries a 7.4/10 Lab Rating. San Francisco Giants has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 12 rating points. San Francisco Giants carries the higher-risk bullpen, 9.0/10 versus 7.1/10. Recent context: 29.7 relief innings over the last 7 days, 4 back-to-back arms. San Francisco Giants's pen has been struggling lately (2.7/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 19.6 points from 88.5% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 69.0%.
Risk notePrimary caution: bullpen fatigue adds late-game caution. Recheck official news before first pitch.
New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Gerrit Cole Over 5.5 +110
- Leo side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.8/10
- Model probability
- 57.6%
- Market probability
- 48.4%
- Model vs market
- +9.2%
- Current price
- +105
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- New York Yankees has the fresher bullpen, 5.5/10 versus 7.5/10. San Diego Padres has used 26.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionNew York Yankees is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 57.6% win probability, the market is at 48.4%, and the setup carries a 6.8/10 Lab Rating. The starting pitching matchup does not create a clear advantage. New York Yankees has the lower-risk bullpen, 5.0/10 versus 6.9/10. San Diego Padres has 26.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 5 back-to-back arms. San Diego Padres's pen has been effective lately (6.2/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 6.4 points from 64.0% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 57.6%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Kyle Harrison Over 6.5 -115
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.6/10
- Model probability
- 71.9%
- Market probability
- 56.4%
- Model vs market
- +15.5%
- Current price
- -131
- Pitcher edge
- Milwaukee Brewers by 17 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Milwaukee Brewers is 7.9/10 and Cincinnati Reds is 8.3/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionMilwaukee Brewers is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 71.9% win probability, the market is at 56.4%, and the setup carries a 6.6/10 Lab Rating. Milwaukee Brewers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 17 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Milwaukee Brewers is 8.1/10 and Cincinnati Reds is 7.9/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 21.9 points from 93.8% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 71.9%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Eduardo Rodriguez Over 4.5 +123
- Leo side
- Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.1/10
- Model probability
- 60.9%
- Market probability
- 49.0%
- Model vs market
- +11.9%
- Current price
- +101
- Pitcher edge
- Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- Arizona Diamondbacks has the fresher bullpen, 6.4/10 versus 9.6/10. Houston Astros has used 28.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Kyle Leahy Over 2.5 -128
Pitcher Ks: Tanner Gordon Over 3.5 -167
- Leo side
- St. Louis Cardinals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.8/10
- Model probability
- 71.8%
- Market probability
- 55.4%
- Model vs market
- +16.4%
- Current price
- -129
- Pitcher edge
- St. Louis Cardinals by 16 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. St. Louis Cardinals is 10.0/10 and Colorado Rockies is 8.2/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Bailey Ober Over 3.5 -137
- Leo side
- Chicago White Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.8/10
- Model probability
- 69.5%
- Market probability
- 57.1%
- Model vs market
- +12.4%
- Current price
- -141
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago White Sox by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Chicago White Sox is 6.2/10 and Minnesota Twins is 6.4/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Chicago White Sox is using a bullpen game. Bryan Hudson is expected to cover about 1.2 innings, leaving roughly 7.8 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.8/10 risk with 5.9/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.9/10 for Chicago White Sox versus 6.5/10 for Minnesota Twins.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Chicago White Sox is using a bullpen game. Bryan Hudson is expected to cover about 1.2 innings, leaving roughly 7.8 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.8/10 risk with 5.9/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.9/10 for Chicago White Sox versus 6.5/10 for Minnesota Twins.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Andrew Alvarez Over 3.5 -111
Pitcher Ks: Justin Wrobleski Over 4.5 +115
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.5/10
- Model probability
- 62.3%
- Market probability
- 64.1%
- Model vs market
- -1.8%
- Current price
- -190
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Los Angeles Dodgers is 6.8/10 and Washington Nationals is 6.1/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Randy Dobnak Over 2.5 -109
- Leo side
- Kansas City Royals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.2/10
- Model probability
- 64.2%
- Market probability
- 47.0%
- Model vs market
- +17.2%
- Current price
- +109
- Pitcher edge
- Kansas City Royals by 10 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Kansas City Royals is 6.3/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 7.4/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Ian Seymour Over 5.5 -136
Pitcher Ks: MacKenzie Gore Under 5.5 -157
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.1/10
- Model probability
- 62.7%
- Market probability
- 50.2%
- Model vs market
- +12.5%
- Current price
- -105
- Pitcher edge
- Tampa Bay Rays by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Tampa Bay Rays is 7.9/10 and Texas Rangers is 9.2/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Walbert Urena Over 5.5 +118
Pitcher Ks: Walbert Ureña Over 5.5 +118
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Angels Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.5/10
- Model probability
- 50.4%
- Market probability
- 36.6%
- Model vs market
- +13.9%
- Current price
- +167
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- Los Angeles Angels has the fresher bullpen, 5.3/10 versus 7.9/10. Pittsburgh Pirates has used 27.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 8 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Aaron Nola Over 5.5 -140
Pitcher Ks: Tyler Mahle Under 4.5 -125
- Leo side
- Atlanta Braves Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.1/10
- Model probability
- 57.7%
- Market probability
- 50.0%
- Model vs market
- +7.7%
- Current price
- -104
- Pitcher edge
- Atlanta Braves by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Atlanta Braves is 6.1/10 and Philadelphia Phillies is 4.9/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Athletics @ Seattle Mariners
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Gage Jump Over 5.5 -109
- Leo side
- Seattle Mariners Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.1/10
- Model probability
- 70.5%
- Market probability
- 64.7%
- Model vs market
- +5.9%
- Current price
- -192
- Pitcher edge
- Seattle Mariners by 18 points
- Bullpen read
- Seattle Mariners has the fresher bullpen, 6.0/10 versus 8.7/10. Athletics has used 31.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.