MLB matchup analysis
Tigers vs White Sox Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Thursday, September 17, 2026 at Rate Field · 7:40 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Tigers vs White Sox
The case for Detroit Tigers
The case for Chicago White Sox
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Tigers 1, White Sox 3
How the analysis held up
Chicago White Sox won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Erick Fedde (No clear pitching-plan edge), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Framber Valdez: 4.2 IP, 1 ER (1.93 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 3 ER (5.40 ERA). The edge held up.
The Detroit Tigers bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 3.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
The Chicago White Sox bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 4.1 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Likely driver: Framber Valdez, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 5.40 ERA, and the Chicago White Sox bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 4.1 innings).
Game information
| Matchup | Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|
| Date | Thursday, September 17, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Rate Field |
| Starting pitchers | Framber Valdez vs Erick Fedde |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 69°F, 4% precipitation chance, 10 mph wind from N. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Tigers | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 60 | 62 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.10 | 3.92 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.37 | 1.33 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.8 | 6.2 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 8.8% | 7.6% |
| K% (higher is better) | 17.4% | 16.1% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.6% | 8.5% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.4 | 3.3 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Ground-ball rate | 61.8% | 43.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 38.2% | 56.4% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Erick Fedde a 2-point edge over Framber Valdez, driven mainly by WHIP (1.33 vs 1.37) and ERA (3.92 vs 4.10).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Tigers are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 6.0 runs per game over the last 15 days; White Sox are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 3.6 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.48 against +0.24).
| Metric | Tigers | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.769 | 0.665 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.338 | 0.300 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 6.0 | 3.6 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 24.0% | 28.1% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Tigers | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.655 (-0.060 vs szn) | 0.687 (-0.034 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.96 (-0.506 vs szn) | 3.97 (-0.701 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.293 (-0.024 vs szn) | 0.309 (-0.010 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 24.2% (+1.4% vs szn) | 25.3% (+1.1% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the White Sox have been the better offense, 0.309 wOBA to 0.293. They are cooling off against their own season line (-0.010 wOBA). White Sox are striking out at 25.3% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Tigers | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 72-80 | 77-75 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.48 | +0.24 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.47 | 4.67 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.99 | 4.43 |
| Season OPS | 0.716 | 0.722 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.8% | 24.2% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.725 | 0.743 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Tigers and White Sox are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Tigers | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.0/10, Tired | 9.5/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 6.0/10, Effective | 5.0/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 6.5/10, Tired | 9.5/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 24.7 | 46.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 2 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.28 | 4.11 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.01 | 1.30 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 3.1 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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