MLB matchup analysis
Athletics vs Rays Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Thursday, September 17, 2026 at Tropicana Field · 1:10 PM ET
Leo prediction: Tampa Bay Rays moneyline
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
The case for Athletics
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Tampa Bay Rays remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 7.4/10: conviction 9.29, pitching plan 40, offense 25.17. Market pricing was unavailable. Tampa Bay Rays owns the starting pitcher edge by 37 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. Tampa Bay Rays's pen efficiency: Average (5.1/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.5 points from 97.1% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.6%. Lineup check: Tampa Bay Rays is near its season form (+0.005 OPS); Athletics is near its season form (+0.006 OPS).
Final result
Athletics 1, Rays 10
How the analysis held up
Tampa Bay Rays won, the side Leo's model favored.
Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Jeffrey Springs: 5.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 3.1 IP, 6 ER (16.20 ERA). The edge held up.
The Athletics bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 2 earned runs over 4.2 innings (3.86 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight. Note: 2 of the runs charged to the Athletics pitching staff overall were unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 1 earned run over 4.0 innings (2.25 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Game information
| Matchup | Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|
| Date | Thursday, September 17, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Tropicana Field |
| Starting pitchers | Jeffrey Springs vs Drew Rasmussen |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 84°F, 0% precipitation chance, 8 mph wind from E. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Athletics | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 5⅔ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 44 | 81 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 6.18 | 2.72 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.47 | 0.93 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.1 | 8.9 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 8.7% | 20.8% |
| K% (higher is better) | 17.8% | 25.3% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.2% | 4.5% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.9% | 50.0% |
| Fly-ball rate | 59.1% | 50.0% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Drew Rasmussen a 37-point edge over Jeffrey Springs, driven mainly by HR/9 (0.76 vs 2.15) and ERA (2.72 vs 6.18).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Athletics are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.1 runs per game over the last 15 days; Rays are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 5.0 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Rays carry the better run differential per game (+0.53 against -1.40).
| Metric | Athletics | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 8-2 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 8-2 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.725 | 0.739 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.319 | 0.323 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.1 | 5.0 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 22.2% | 18.0% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Athletics | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.704 (-0.015 vs szn) | 0.709 (-0.026 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.14 (-0.177 vs szn) | 4.71 (+0.122 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.313 | 0.312 (-0.012 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 22.3% | 16.7% (-1.7% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Athletics have been the better offense, 0.313 wOBA to 0.312.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Athletics | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 61-91 | 92-59 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -1.40 | +0.53 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.32 | 4.59 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 5.72 | 4.07 |
| Season OPS | 0.719 | 0.734 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.5% | 18.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.719 | 0.687 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Athletics and Rays are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Athletics | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.1/10, Tired | 7.4/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 2.4/10, Struggling | 5.1/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 8.4/10, High risk | 7.4/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 26.0 | 18.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 7.27 | 4.34 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.81 | 1.18 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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