Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Monday, September 7, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
11
OFFICIAL PICKS
9
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
2
PASSES
8
Updated Sep 7, 8:40 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Top Lab Rating
Official Pick
Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Official markets
Moneyline: Cincinnati Reds +273
Pitcher Ks: Chase Burns Over 4.5 -142
Pitcher Ks: Emmet Sheehan Over 6.5 +109
- Leo side
- Cincinnati Reds Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.7/10
- Model probability
- 71.4%
- Market probability
- 26.2%
- Model vs market
- +45.2%
- Current price
- +273
- Pitcher edge
- Cincinnati Reds by 20 points
- Bullpen read
- Cincinnati Reds carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.0/10 versus 7.4/10, which adds late-game risk. Cincinnati Reds has used 25.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionCincinnati Reds is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 71.4% chance to win, compared with the market's 26.2% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 7.7/10 Lab Rating. Cincinnati Reds has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 20 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Cincinnati Reds is 8.6/10 and Los Angeles Dodgers is 7.5/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 21.6 points from 93.0% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 71.4%. At +273, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
- Leo side
- Philadelphia Phillies Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.1/10
- Model probability
- 69.9%
- Market probability
- 79.3%
- Model vs market
- -9.4%
- Current price
- -167
- Pitcher edge
- Philadelphia Phillies by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Philadelphia Phillies 5.2/10, Atlanta Braves 5.7/10).
Why Leo made this decisionPhiladelphia Phillies is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 69.9% win probability, the market is at 79.3%, and the setup carries a 7.1/10 Lab Rating. Philadelphia Phillies has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 13 rating points. No meaningful bullpen risk edge — both pens come in comparable (Philadelphia Phillies 5.3/10, Atlanta Braves 5.0/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 20.0 points from 89.8% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 69.9%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Dylan Cease Over 7.5 +102
Pitcher Ks: Jacob Lopez Under 4.5 -138
- Leo side
- Toronto Blue Jays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.7/10
- Model probability
- 73.7%
- Market probability
- 61.7%
- Model vs market
- +12.0%
- Current price
- -172
- Pitcher edge
- Toronto Blue Jays by 28 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Toronto Blue Jays is 6.7/10 and Athletics is 7.9/10.
Why Leo made this decisionToronto Blue Jays is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 73.7% win probability, the market is at 61.7%, and the setup carries a 6.7/10 Lab Rating. Toronto Blue Jays has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 28 rating points. Toronto Blue Jays has the lower-risk bullpen, 6.0/10 versus 7.7/10. Athletics has 30.7 relief innings over the last 7 days, 5 back-to-back arms. Athletics's pen has been effective lately (5.5/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.5 points from 97.2% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.7%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.8/10
- Model probability
- 69.6%
- Market probability
- 56.3%
- Model vs market
- +13.3%
- Current price
- -134
- Pitcher edge
- Boston Red Sox by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- Boston Red Sox carries the heavier bullpen workload, 6.4/10 versus 3.8/10, which adds late-game risk. Boston Red Sox has used 24.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.8/10
- Model probability
- 51.9%
- Market probability
- 34.4%
- Model vs market
- +17.4%
- Current price
- +184
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- Chicago Cubs has the fresher bullpen, 6.1/10 versus 8.8/10. Milwaukee Brewers has used 28.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins
- Leo side
- Miami Marlins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.7/10
- Model probability
- 72.2%
- Market probability
- 55.3%
- Model vs market
- +16.9%
- Current price
- -130
- Pitcher edge
- Miami Marlins by 19 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Miami Marlins is 7.3/10 and New York Mets is 6.4/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles
- Leo side
- Baltimore Orioles Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.5/10
- Model probability
- 58.5%
- Market probability
- 53.2%
- Model vs market
- +5.4%
- Current price
- -115
- Pitcher edge
- Baltimore Orioles by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Baltimore Orioles is 6.4/10 and Cleveland Guardians is 7.4/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Troy Melton Under 4.5 -137
Pitcher Ks: Joe Ryan Over 3.5 -115
- Leo side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.4/10
- Model probability
- 61.1%
- Market probability
- 54.4%
- Model vs market
- +6.7%
- Current price
- -123
- Pitcher edge
- Detroit Tigers by 7 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Detroit Tigers is 7.0/10 and Minnesota Twins is 7.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
- Leo side
- Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.3/10
- Model probability
- 64.4%
- Market probability
- 50.7%
- Model vs market
- +13.7%
- Current price
- -108
- Pitcher edge
- Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Arizona Diamondbacks is 8.9/10 and Kansas City Royals is 8.2/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Arizona Diamondbacks is using a bullpen game. Derek Law is expected to cover about 2.0 innings, leaving roughly 7.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.9/10 risk with 7.1/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 7.1/10 for Arizona Diamondbacks versus 5.3/10 for Kansas City Royals.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Arizona Diamondbacks is using a bullpen game. Derek Law is expected to cover about 2.0 innings, leaving roughly 7.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.9/10 risk with 7.1/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 7.1/10 for Arizona Diamondbacks versus 5.3/10 for Kansas City Royals.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Jake Irvin Over 4.5 +117
Pitcher Ks: Nick Pivetta Over 4.5 -113
- Leo side
- San Diego Padres Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.3/10
- Model probability
- 69.7%
- Market probability
- 64.0%
- Model vs market
- +5.6%
- Current price
- -192
- Pitcher edge
- San Diego Padres by 14 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. San Diego Padres is 6.6/10 and Washington Nationals is 5.9/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants
- Leo side
- San Francisco Giants Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.3/10
- Model probability
- 51.4%
- Market probability
- 50.3%
- Model vs market
- +1.2%
- Current price
- -105
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. San Francisco Giants is 7.8/10 and St. Louis Cardinals is 10.0/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.