MLB matchup analysis
Reds vs Dodgers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Monday, September 7, 2026 at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 9:10 PM ET
Leo prediction: Cincinnati Reds moneyline
The case for Cincinnati Reds
The case for Los Angeles Dodgers
What to watch
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Cincinnati Reds is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 71.4% model win probability and 7.7/10 Lab Rating. Leo projects 71.4% against a 26.2% no-vig market number, a 45.2% model edge at +273. Cincinnati Reds owns the starting pitcher edge by 20 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. Cincinnati Reds's pen efficiency: Effective (5.8/10). Lineup check: Cincinnati Reds is swinging a hot bat (+0.095 OPS); Los Angeles Dodgers is in a cold stretch (-0.072 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Reds 3, Dodgers 6
How the analysis held up
Los Angeles Dodgers won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Chase Burns (Cincinnati Reds), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Emmet Sheehan: 3.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 5.2 IP, 1 ER (1.59 ERA). The edge held up. Both starters were sharp; the edge is a narrow one between two good outings.
The Cincinnati Reds bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 3 earned runs over 5.0 innings (5.40 ERA) — the risk read showed up. Note: 3 of the runs charged to the Cincinnati Reds pitching staff overall were unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 2 earned runs over 3.1 innings (5.40 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
Cincinnati Reds scored 3, 2.3 fewer than the 5.3 pregame projection.
Los Angeles Dodgers scored 6, 3.1 more than the 2.9 pregame projection.
Likely driver: the opposing starter (1.59 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way, and Los Angeles Dodgers's offense scored 3.1 more runs than projected.
Game information
| Matchup | Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|
| Date | Monday, September 7, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:10 PM ET |
| Venue | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Chase Burns vs Emmet Sheehan |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 87°F, 4% precipitation chance, 7 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Reds | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 77 | 57 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.79 | 5.29 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.16 | 1.29 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 10.6 | 10.2 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 20.4% | 18.9% |
| K% (higher is better) | 28.9% | 26.2% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.4% | 7.3% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.1 | 2.8 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.2% | 38.7% |
| Fly-ball rate | 59.8% | 61.3% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Chase Burns a 20-point edge over Emmet Sheehan, driven mainly by ERA (2.79 vs 5.29) and HR/9 (0.93 vs 1.89).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Reds are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 5.5 runs per game over the last 15 days; Dodgers are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.3 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Dodgers carry the better run differential per game (+1.08 against -0.75).
| Metric | Reds | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 8-2 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.804 | 0.684 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.351 | 0.312 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.5 | 4.3 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 25.6% | 20.8% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Reds | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.699 (-0.009 vs szn) | 0.690 (-0.065 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.45 (+0.226 vs szn) | 4.43 (-0.509 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.309 | 0.308 (-0.024 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 25.6% | 21.2% (+0.6% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Reds have been the better offense, 0.309 wOBA to 0.308. Reds are striking out at 25.6% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Reds | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 69-74 | 86-57 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.75 | +1.08 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.22 | 4.94 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.97 | 3.86 |
| Season OPS | 0.709 | 0.756 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 25.4% | 20.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.694 | 0.762 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Reds and Dodgers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Reds | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 9.0/10, High risk | 7.4/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.8/10, Effective | 4.9/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 8.6/10, High risk | 7.5/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 25.3 | 24.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.84 | 4.81 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.34 | 1.15 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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