MLB matchup analysis
Cubs vs Brewers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Monday, September 7, 2026 at American Family Field · 2:10 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Cubs vs Brewers
The case for Chicago Cubs
The case for Milwaukee Brewers
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Cubs 3, Brewers 4
How the analysis held up
Milwaukee Brewers won. Leo's model favored the other side.
Robert Gasser (No clear pitching-plan edge), the starter Leo's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Matthew Boyd: 4.2 IP, 1 ER (1.93 ERA) against 7.0 IP, 3 ER (3.86 ERA). The edge held up.
The Chicago Cubs bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 1 earned run allowed over 1.0 relief innings (9.00 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 2 earned runs over 4.1 innings (4.15 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Likely driver: the Chicago Cubs bullpen allowed 1 earned run over 1.0 relief innings (9.00 ERA), which was not flagged pregame but showed up anyway, and the opposing starter (1.93 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way.
Game information
| Matchup | Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|
| Date | Monday, September 7, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:10 PM ET |
| Venue | American Family Field |
| Starting pitchers | Matthew Boyd vs Robert Gasser |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 69°F, 0% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from SE. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Cubs | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 5 |
| Throws | L | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 65 | 62 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.03 | 4.43 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.22 | 1.28 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.1 | 8.6 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 11.8% | 14.6% |
| K% (higher is better) | 19.1% | 21.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.3% | 7.3% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.7 | 2.9 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Ground-ball rate | 49.1% | 38.0% |
| Fly-ball rate | 50.9% | 62.0% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Matthew Boyd a 3-point edge over Robert Gasser, driven mainly by expected innings (5.8 vs 5.1) and ERA (4.03 vs 4.43).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Cubs are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 6.9 runs per game over the last 15 days; Brewers are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 5.2 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.90 against +1.17).
| Metric | Cubs | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.882 | 0.784 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.382 | 0.347 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 6.9 | 5.2 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 16.6% | 21.1% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Cubs | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.841 (+0.071 vs szn) | 0.753 (+0.015 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 6.07 (+0.754 vs szn) | 5.28 (+0.241 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.365 (+0.025 vs szn) | 0.334 (+0.007 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 19.7% (-1.7% vs szn) | 22.9% (+1.3% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Cubs have been the better offense, 0.365 wOBA to 0.334. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.025 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Cubs | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 81-63 | 88-56 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.90 | +1.17 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 5.32 | 5.03 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.41 | 3.87 |
| Season OPS | 0.770 | 0.738 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.3% | 21.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.810 | 0.701 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Cubs and Brewers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Cubs | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.1/10, Normal | 8.8/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 3.7/10, Below average | 3.8/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 6.8/10, Tired | 9.4/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 25.0 | 28.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 5.76 | 5.34 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.52 | 1.64 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 4.9 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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